The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has released its economic growth forecast for Uzbekistan for the first half of the current year.
The forecast for the current level of gross domestic product (GDP) is based on advanced analytical tools and international best practices. CERR applies the method of nowcasting – a short-term forecasting approach that integrates high-frequency, real-time data to promptly capture shifts in economic activity and predict upcoming trends.
In the first half of 2025, Uzbekistan’s economy continues to demonstrate steady and balanced growth amid ongoing external risks. According to the State Committee on Statistics, GDP grew by 6.8% in January–March, with the main drivers being the services sector, industry, and construction. Market services output increased by 12.6%, construction volume grew by 10.8%, retail turnover rose by 9.5%, industrial production expanded by 6.5%, and aggregate household income grew by 9.8%.
Foreign trade also showed strong performance in January–April: total trade turnover reached $24.6 billion, up 16.3% year-on-year. Exports rose by 35.1% to $11.9 billion, while imports increased by 2.9%. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed significantly to –$846 million (from –$3.6 billion a year earlier).
CERR’s Business Activity Index (BAI) stood at 1,099 points in April 2025 – 9.9% higher than in March and 22.3% above April 2024.
Given current macroeconomic indicators and strong investment and trade activity, CERR forecasts that Uzbekistan’s GDP will grow by 6.7% in the first half of 2025. The projected growth range is between 6.5% and 6.8%.
Projected Weekly GDP Growth of Uzbekistan in the First Half of 2025
The key growth drivers include expansion in industry and services, increased investment activity, including over 120 trillion sums in fixed capital investment during January–March, growth in real household incomes and consumer demand, as well as infrastructure development and enhanced regional economic integration.
To assess and forecast GDP dynamics before the official release of quarterly data, CERR conducted a high-frequency analysis using advanced methods. Based on Google search data, January–April 2025 saw increased interest in the categories of “business and industry” (+4.1%), “shopping” (+7.6%), and “finance” (+3.7%), indicating rising business and consumer activity.
According to April updates, the Asian Development Bank forecasts Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in 2025 at 6.6%, citing expansion in industry and services; the International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast to 5.9%, highlighting increased real incomes and domestic demand; the World Bank also projects 5.9% growth, attributing it to strong consumer demand, remittance inflows, and stable investment activity.
CERR’s forecast, based on weekly monitoring of key economic indicators, takes into account both domestic and global factors affecting the economy. This allows for early assessment of GDP dynamics ahead of official quarterly releases and supports responsive economic policy decisions.
Jamshid Akhmatov, Senior Research Fellow
CERR Public Relations Department
Tel.: (+998) 78 150-32-20 (417)
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