During the session entitled “Long-Term Scenarios for the Development of Sustainable Agrifood Systems,” the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the findings of its study on decarbonization pathways for Uzbekistan’s agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector through 2070.
Abdurashid Bozorov, Head of Sector at CERR, presented the study’s main findings. Representatives of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) participated in the expert discussion.
According to CERR estimates, agriculture accounts for 17.5% of Uzbekistan’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Approximately two-thirds of emissions from the agricultural sector consist of methane, with livestock production being the primary source.
The study highlights the positive outcomes of agricultural reforms implemented between 2017 and 2025. During this period, cereal crop yields increased by 48%, while raw cotton yields rose by 71%. Water withdrawals declined by 22%, and the area covered by water-saving technologies reached 2.6 million hectares.
At the same time, considerable opportunities remain to improve the efficiency of natural resource use. In particular, 37% of irrigation water is lost in canals, while nearly half of irrigated land is affected by salinization.
CERR experts developed three development scenarios through 2070, covering the continuation of existing trends, the implementation of current government programs, and the introduction of additional measures to increase productivity and reduce emissions.
The modeling results indicate significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through improved livestock productivity, more efficient fertilizer use, pasture restoration, and forestry development.
Particular attention was given to the relationship between climate objectives, food security, and agricultural production efficiency. Improving livestock productivity would allow agricultural output to increase while reducing pressure on pastures and natural resources.
Based on the study’s findings, CERR proposed a series of further measures to improve water resource management, reduce food losses, and enhance the efficiency of agricultural land use.
The findings presented by CERR’s analytical team (Khurshed Asadov, Abdurashid Bozorov, Bakhtiyor Ismailov, and Alisher Kholmurzaev) served as the basis for expert discussions on the long-term prospects for the development of Uzbekistan’s agrifood systems.
CERR Public Relations Sector
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