Intra-Regional Trade in Central Asia in January–July 2026

Intra-regional trade is measured as the sum of each country’s exports to other Central Asian states. This approach avoids double counting, since the same transaction is recorded as an export by one country and an import by another. For Turkmenistan, mirror data from the national statistical agencies of the Central Asian countries were used.

All Central Asian countries increased their exports to regional markets. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan accounted for the largest volumes and the strongest contribution to growth. Kazakhstan’s exports to the region rose by 26.8% to $4.5 billion, while Uzbekistan’s increased by 34.5% to $2 billion. Kyrgyzstan’s exports grew by 18.3% to $523 million, Turkmenistan’s by 10.4% to $844 million, and Tajikistan’s by 6.2% to $209 million.

Kazakhstan accounted for the largest share of intra-regional exports at 55.9% of the total. Uzbekistan’s share stood at 24.7%, Turkmenistan’s at 10.4%, Kyrgyzstan’s at 6.4%, and Tajikistan’s at 2.6%. Thus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan together accounted for 80.6% of intra-regional exports. They also contributed about 90% of the increase in Central Asia’s intra-regional exports.

Trade between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains the region’s largest bilateral trade flow. Bilateral trade reached $3.3 billion in the first seven months of 2026. Trade between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also remains significant, as do Uzbekistan’s trade links with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Trade between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also continues to expand. At the same time, direct trade among Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan remains relatively limited.

In terms of their role in intra-regional trade, Central Asian countries can be divided into two groups. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are predominantly regional net exporters, while Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan remain net importers.

Country Trends in Trade with the Region

In January–July 2026, Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with Central Asian countries reached $5.9 billion, increasing by 25%. Exports rose by 26.8% to $4.5 billion, while imports increased by 19.2% to $1.4 billion. Exports exceeded imports by more than three times, while Kazakhstan’s trade surplus with the region amounted to approximately $3.2 billion.

Central Asia accounted for 6.7% of Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade, including 8.9% of exports and 3.7% of imports. The region therefore remains considerably more important for Kazakhstan as an export market than as a source of imports.

Uzbekistan remains Kazakhstan’s largest regional partner, accounting for 55% of its trade with Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan accounted for 25%, Tajikistan for 14%, and Turkmenistan for 5%.

Trade increased across all major directions: with Uzbekistan by 30%, Tajikistan by 25%, Kyrgyzstan by 20%, and Turkmenistan by 6.1%. Kazakhstan has therefore continued to actively expand trade with countries across the region this year.

Uzbekistan’s trade with Central Asian countries increased by 28%, reaching $5.4 billion. Exports rose by 35% to $2 billion, while imports increased by 25% to $3.4 billion. The trade deficit amounted to approximately $1.4 billion. The import deficit was concentrated in trade with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, while Uzbekistan maintained trade surpluses with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The region accounted for 10.9% of Uzbekistan’s total foreign trade, including 10.1% of exports and 11.4% of imports. The broadly similar shares in overall trade flows indicate a relatively balanced role for Central Asia both as an export market and as a source of imports.

Kazakhstan accounted for 61% of Uzbekistan’s trade with the region, Kyrgyzstan for 14%, Turkmenistan for 15%, and Tajikistan for 11%. At the same time, smaller trade directions recorded the fastest growth: trade with Kyrgyzstan increased by 54%, while trade with Tajikistan rose by 45%. Trade with Kazakhstan grew by 24%, and trade with Turkmenistan by 16%. This indicates a gradual diversification of the geography of Uzbekistan’s regional trade.

Kyrgyzstan’s trade turnover with Central Asian countries reached $2 billion, increasing by 12.3%. Imports amounted to $1.5 billion, up 10.3%, while exports rose by 18.3% to $523 million. Despite faster export growth, the trade deficit remained substantial at $942 million.

Central Asian countries accounted for 19.9% of Kyrgyzstan’s total foreign trade, including 17.6% of imports and 31.4% of exports. Regional markets are therefore particularly important for Kyrgyzstan as destinations for its exports.

Kyrgyzstan’s regional trade remains concentrated mainly in two directions. Kazakhstan accounted for 61% of its trade with Central Asian countries, while Uzbekistan accounted for 36%. Tajikistan’s share stood at 2.1%, and Turkmenistan’s at 1.4%. Trade with Uzbekistan increased by 40.3%, while trade with Tajikistan expanded 3.3-fold. At the same time, trade turnover with Kazakhstan declined by 0.6%, and with Turkmenistan by 25.8%.

Tajikistan increased its trade turnover with Central Asian countries by 30% to $1.4 billion. Imports rose by 35% to $1.2 billion, while exports increased by 6.2% to $209 million. As a result, Tajikistan’s trade deficit with the region reached $977 million.

Central Asia accounted for 17.6% of Tajikistan’s total foreign trade, including 19.2% of imports and 11.7% of exports. The region is therefore more important for Tajikistan as a source of goods than as an export market.

Kazakhstan remains Tajikistan’s dominant regional partner, accounting for 64% of its trade with Central Asian countries. Uzbekistan accounted for 30%, Turkmenistan for 3.4%, and Kyrgyzstan for 2.7%.

Over the first seven months of the year, trade turnover increased with all countries in the region. In particular, trade with Kazakhstan rose by 32.7%, while trade with Uzbekistan increased by 13%. The highest growth rates were recorded in trade with Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, although the absolute volumes remain relatively small.

According to mirror data, Turkmenistan’s exports to Central Asian countries totaled $844 million, increasing by 10%. The country accounted for 10% of the region’s intra-regional exports. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan remain its main regional export destinations, while shipments to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain limited.

Overall, the results for January–July 2026 confirm that intra-regional trade continues to follow a positive trajectory. Particularly notable developments include the strengthening of Uzbekistan’s trade with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as the continued revival of trade between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

At the same time, direct trade flows among Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan remain limited, while significant trade imbalances and a high concentration of trade across a relatively small number of country pairs persist.

Against this background, a transition from predominantly bilateral trade toward multilateral production linkages is becoming increasingly important. This will require further removal of non-tariff barriers, development of cross-border infrastructure, greater harmonization of technical requirements, expansion of non-commodity exports, and the creation of cross-border value chains.

Ruslan Abaturov, CERR