Business climate in Uzbekistan showed growth in February - CERR analysis

Business climate in Uzbekistan showed growth in February - CERR analysis

The Business Climate Index in Uzbekistan was introduced according to the methodology of the German analogue of the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute (“IFO Institute”), one of the key indicators of economic activity in Germany.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has been conducting a series of monthly surveys among enterprises across the country. More than 1000 companies participated in the survey in two directions: qualitative assessment of the current state of the business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their business for the next three months.

The sampling methodology is an industry stratified random sample according to the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys methodology.

In February of this year, the composite indicator of business climate was 60 points and compared to January of this year increased by 1 point, which evaluates the business climate in the country as positive (in February 2021 - 60 points; in January this year - 59 points).

Fig.1 Dynamics of the business climate indicator

Changes in the summary indicator of the business climate are associated with adjustments to the following components of the indicator:

The Current State of Business indicator was 43 points, which characterizes the positive sentiment of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of business (February 2021 - 44 points).

43% of entrepreneurs surveyed noted the current state of their business as good.

When asked how the current condition of their businesses changed in the past 3 months, 29% of entrepreneurs responded that it improved, 53% did not change, and 18% worsened.

The demand for goods/services improved in 39% of enterprises, while the number of employees increased in 22% of enterprises.

In terms of industries, the business climate indicator was as follows:

  • in construction 30 points;
  • in industry 39 points;
  • in agriculture 48 points;
  • in the sphere of services 44 points.

The index of expectations of business prospects amounted to 79 points, which reflects the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects of their businesses for the next 3 months as optimistic.

80% of entrepreneurs estimated that their business prospects will improve. Demand for goods and services is expected to improve for 73% of businesses, and the number of employees will increase for 68%.

The indicator of expectations of business prospects by industry was:

  • in agriculture - 88 points;
  • in industry - 81 points;
  • in construction - 84 points;
  • in the sphere of services - 69 points.

In general, the relationship of the values of the current situation and expectations means that, according to the estimates of business entities, the positive trend in economic development will continue in the next 3 months.

Feruzbek Davletov, Head of the Sector, the CERR

Public Relations Service CERR

Tel.: (+998) 78 150-02-02 (416)

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