CERR assessed the level of real estate activity and the affordability of mortgage loans in the secondary market

In November 2021, 22.5 thousand contracts for the purchase and sale of real estate were concluded in Uzbekistan, which is 4% more than in September (21.6 thousand). It is a sharp increase in the number of sale compared to November 2020 (14.4%) and November 2019 (40.6%) and indicates that the demand in the housing market is still very high.

Fig. 1. Index of changes in the number of executed contracts for the purchase and sale of real estate

The highest growth rates of purchase and sale of real estate were observed in Surkhandarya (22.9%), Namangan (17.3%), Khorezm (14.3%) regions. At the same time, a slight decrease was recorded in Andijan (14.1%), Samarkand (6.6%) and Tashkent (3.7%) regions.

As shown by the analysis of CERR, average housing prices in the secondary market in November increased by 1.2% compared to October. The largest hike in the prices was observed in Tashkent (3.2%), Samarkand (3.1%) and Khorezm (3.0%) regions, while in Navoi housing prices decreased (-1.4%).

As for cities, the highest housing prices were recorded in Tashkent (USD 753 per square meter), Samarkand (USD 553) and Navoi (USD 418), while the lowest prices were in Nukus (USD 277), Karshi (USD 289) and Gulistan (USD 289).

The average price of housing in the secondary market in the city of Tashkent increased by 1.3% compared to the previous month. The highest growth in housing prices was observed in Mirzo-Ulugbek (3.5%) and Mirabad (3.2%) districts, and the lowest growth rates were observed in Uchtepa (0.1%), Bektemir (0.7%) and Yashnabad (-0.6%) areas.

Based on the average prices for housing in the capital and regional centers, the experts calculated the share of households that have the opportunity to obtain mortgage loans (without subsidies) for the purchase of housing in the secondary market.

When calculating the share of the population that is eligible for a mortgage loan for the purchase of housing, it is assumed that up to 50% of the family's income is used for a mortgage loan, for the purchase of housing with an area of 62 sq. m., the loan term is 20 years, and the initial payment is 30%.

In terms of regions, the analysis showed that in Samarkand (13%), Namangan (19%) regions and Tashkent city (15%), the share of households with the opportunity to purchase housing on a mortgage is low due to high housing prices.

Taking into account current prices, the opportunity to purchase housing with a mortgage loan in Fergana (35%), Karakalpakstan (33%) and Navoi (32.9%) is higher than in the other regions.

According to the CERR experts, in Uzbekistan, the share of people who can afford to buy housing in the secondary market with a mortgage loan is 26%.

In general, the volume of mortgage loans to individuals in January-November 2021 amounted to 8 trillion soums. The resources allocated by the Ministry of Finance for housing construction through mortgage loans increased by 3 times or to 3.9 trillion soums (1.3 trillion soums in 2020).

Khalilullokh Khamidov, Head of the Sector

Center for Economic Research and Reforms

tel: (78) 150 02 02 (410)

Public Relations Service

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