The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) monthly publishes a series of information and analytical materials based on the results of a survey of the business climate of the real sector and the service sector and monitoring of business activity in the regions. Short-term qualitative assessments of the state of the business are conducted on the basis of surveys and official statistical data.
In May, the state of the business climate in Uzbekistan improved markedly, as evidenced by the results of the CERR survey, which was attended by over 1 thousand entrepreneurs throughout the republic.
In May, the consolidated business climate indicator increased by 1 point compared to the previous month and amounted to 60 points, which assesses the state of the business climate in the country as positive.
The share of respondents who noted the current state of their business as "good" was 40%, against 12% who noted as "bad". At the same time, 23% of enterprises increased the number of employees, and 45% noted an increase in demand for their goods/services.
The growth of the composite indicator was significantly influenced by the dynamics of the business climate indicators in the industry and construction sector. Thus, business sentiment in the industry increased by 13 points, to 67 points, and in the construction sector there was an increase of 12 points to 70 points, respectively.
However, if the consolidated indicator of the business climate in the service sector has shown stable growth for four months in a row since the beginning of the year, then in May it was interrupted, falling by 7 points and amounted to 60 points.
The consolidated indicator of the current state of the business grew slightly and amounted to 46 points, which is also explained by a significant improvement in the current state in the construction and industrial sectors and a deterioration in the current state in the service sector.
The consolidated indicator of expectations of business development prospects increased by three values and amounted to 75 points, which is supported by optimism due to improved expectations of entrepreneurs from the industrial sector. In particular, business expectations in this sector increased by more than 20 points in a month, from 61 to 82 points.
The share of entrepreneurs expecting an improvement in the general condition of their business in the next 3 months was 74%, 69% expect a further increase in demand for goods and services, and 64% plan to increase the number of employees.
It is also worth noting that 20% of entrepreneurs expect an increase in prices for their goods/services in the next 3 months.
Dynamics of business climate indicators
In general, the analysis of the relationship between the indicators of the current situation and expectations means that the positive trend in the development of the economy will continue in the next 3 months.
Analysis of the reasons for changes in indicators
In May of this year, the number of entrepreneurs who faced barriers decreased by 6%. Reducing obstacles in doing business can be a factor of improvement in indicators. For example, the share of respondents who identified difficulties in accessing finance and land plots decreased by 4% and 10% respectively over the month.
From April to May, the share of entrepreneurs reporting questions about high tax rates decreased from 9% to 4%.
Entrepreneurs from the industrial sector began to report problems in the power supply more often. On the other hand, there was a reduction in such obstacles as high tax rates, their number decreased by 16% in a month, and there were 9% fewer entrepreneurs experiencing difficulties in accessing land plots and deficiencies in personnel.
Representatives of agriculture began to worry more about problems in tax administration, their share increased by 9%. At the same time, the share of those who noted difficulties in accessing finance decreased by 15%, and by 6% — to land plots and water supply.
At the same time, the construction sector began to report less about the problems of tax administration, issuing permits and licenses, gas supply, corruption and lack of personnel.
In the service sector, problems of access to land have become more frequent. At the same time, the share of entrepreneurs indicating difficulties in accessing finance by 3% and high tax rates by 4% decreased.
Feruzbek Davletov, CERR
Phone.: (+998) 78 150-02-02 (416)
CERR Public Relations Service
Phone.: (+998) 78 150-32-20 (417)