Center for Economic Research and Reforms Forecasts Uzbekistan's GDP Growth at 6.2%

The GDP forecast is grounded in an advanced analytical approach, incorporating international expertise. CERR applies nowcasting, a data-driven methodology that enables rapid responses to economic changes and accurate trend predictions.

Data Analysis and Current Economic Trends

Uzbekistan’s economy demonstrated resilience and moderate growth in 2024, despite global challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties. The key growth drivers were the services sector, manufacturing, construction, and high investment activity. Economic activity has continued to expand into early 2025.

The year started with a moderate increase in the Business Activity Index in the regions

Positive trends are confirmed by the Business Activity Index (BAI), which, according to CERR estimates, increased by 8.4% in January 2025 compared to the previous month. The index structure shows a significant rise in raw material purchases on the commodity exchange (up by 33.3%) and a 1.1% increase in the number of active business entities.

January 2025 marked strong economic momentum for Uzbekistan. Key indicators, including tax and customs revenues, foreign trade, and business creation, showed sustained growth. According to operational data, tax revenues increased by 10.3%, while customs payments rose by 14.5%. In the first month of the year, 6,126 new business entities were established, and exports grew by 8.1%.

Uzbekistan’s Economic Growth Forecast for 2025

In 2025, the key drivers of economic growth will include high investment activity, particularly in large-scale infrastructure projects in renewable energy and transport infrastructure, as well as the growth of real household incomes.

January 2025 Begins with a Surge in Business Activity Across Uzbekistan’s Regions

Special attention will be given to stable remittance inflows, which will support consumer demand, and export growth, driven by stable prices for gold and other commodities. During the Presidential meeting on entrepreneurship support and economic plans for 2025, it was highlighted that GDP is projected to reach $120 billion, with total investments in the economy expected at $42 billion and exports at $30 billion.

To assess and forecast the current GDP level before the release of official quarterly data, CERR conducted an in-depth analysis using advanced methodologies. Based on weekly tracking of approximately 250 Google search indicators across 20 key categories, alongside price analysis of specific goods and fundamental variables of gross imports and inventories, a weekly GDP forecast model has been developed.

Considering the latest data and economic trends, Uzbekistan's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is projected at 6.2%, with a forecast range between 6.0% and 6.4%.

Projected Weekly GDP Growth of Uzbekistan in Q1 2025

International Assessments

According to the updated report by the World Bank, Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to grow by 5.8% in 2025, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts GDP growth at 5.7%. In September 2024, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised its GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan to 6.2%, citing positive trends in industry and construction.

The CERR forecast, based on weekly monitoring of key economic indicators and incorporating both domestic and external factors affecting economic activity, provides a real-time assessment of GDP trends before the release of official quarterly data.

Jamshid Akhmatov, CERR Senior Research Fellow

Public Relations Service, CERR

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