CERR presented the results of its July analysis of the business climate. Based on the findings, a Business Climate Index was compiled, reflecting both current assessments of business conditions and expectations for its development in the near future.
In July, the composite business climate indicator rose by 5 points compared to the same period last year, reaching 52. The improvement was driven primarily by higher current activity, as the current situation index increased to 44 points (+14) year-on-year.
The index of current business conditions reflects entrepreneurs’ perceptions of the actual situation and business environment, including sales, employment, demand, access to resources, and operational stability.
At the same time, the expectations index adjusted from 66 to 59 points, while remaining at a relatively high level, which reflects stable confidence among entrepreneurs regarding future prospects.
According to the survey, entrepreneurial activity in the country demonstrates positive trends. More than one-third of respondents (37%) reported that their business conditions improved over the past three months, while 42% noted increased demand for goods and services. One in four entrepreneurs (24%) stated that their workforce had expanded, indicating business growth and the need for additional labor.
In terms of expectations for the coming months, overall optimism persists. The majority of respondents (66%) forecast further growth in demand. More than half (53%) expect employment to expand, and one-quarter (25%) anticipate higher prices, reflecting the influence of inflationary expectations on the business environment.
In July, agriculture recorded an improvement in the business climate. The index stood at 50 points, 4 points higher than last year. The current situation index rose from 35 to 39, reflecting notable improvement in recent months, while expectations increased from 59 to 61, maintaining a positive outlook among entrepreneurs. Survey results confirm these trends: 41% of agricultural entrepreneurs reported improved conditions over the past three months (compared to 35% a year earlier), and 79% expect further strengthening (up from 69%).
In industry, the business climate index rose to 50 points, 6 points above last year’s level. More than half of entrepreneurs (51%) assess the current situation as satisfactory, while 21% reported employment growth over the past three months. Expectations remain positive, with 74% forecasting further improvements. A key factor was the sharp increase in the current situation index, which rose from 20 to 44, reflecting a significant recovery in industrial activity.
In services, the business climate index in July reached 54 points, 3 points higher year-on-year. The current situation index strengthened considerably, rising from 34 to 48. Almost half of respondents (47%) rate their business situation as good, and 39% reported improvement over the past three months. Expectations remain generally positive, with 64% projecting further growth in demand, although this figure is slightly lower than last year’s 69%.
In construction, the business climate index strengthened to 50 points, 5 points above last year’s level. The current situation index rose from 28 to 38, while expectations increased from 62 to 63, remaining at a high level. Improvement in business conditions over the past three months was noted by 42% of construction entrepreneurs (compared to 25% last year), and 24% of respondents expect further progress in the near future, reflecting positive market sentiment.
Uzbekistan demonstrates consistent progress in shaping a favorable business environment. The growth of current activity and the high share of optimistic expectations confirm the resilience of domestic demand and the private sector’s ability to adapt to changing conditions.
The Uzbekistan Business Climate Index is calculated by CERR based on surveys of more than 1,000 enterprises across various industries. The indicator is constructed using the methodology of the IFO Institute (Germany). In the course of the survey, business leaders assess both current and expected changes in the business environment, including production dynamics, demand, and other factors.
CERR Banking and Financial Sector Research Sector
Tel: (78) 150 02 02 (441)
leave a comment