At the end of Q1 2026, Uzbekistan’s economy demonstrated solid growth and resilience across key areas. GDP at current prices amounted to 447.9 trillion soums, or $36.9 bn. Real economic growth reached 8.7%, which is 1.9 percentage points higher than in the same period last year and above earlier expectations. This was the strongest quarterly result over the past year.
Positive dynamics were observed across all major sectors of the economy. The highest growth rate was recorded in construction, where gross value added increased by 15.0% to 26.4 trillion soums. The services sector grew by 8.8% to 240.1 trillion soums, retaining its position as the largest segment of the economy. Industry expanded by 8.0%, generating 124.9 trillion soums in value added. Agriculture grew by 5.1%, with sectoral gross value added reaching 36.2 trillion soums.
The positive trend in reducing the non-observed economy also continued. Its share declined from 24.8% to 22.9%. This reflects the results of measures aimed at improving tax administration, monitoring e-commerce, and formalizing employment.
Industrial output reached 289.3 trillion soums by the end of the quarter, exceeding forecast parameters by 2.44 trillion soums. Significant growth was recorded in oil refining at 129.5%, including fuel oil at 179.1% and diesel fuel at 154.5%.
Strong results were also achieved in light industry: production of clothing and textiles increased by 15.3%, knitwear by 26.9%, and cotton fiber by 25.2%. Production of construction materials rose by 14.4%, including cement by 15.7%. In automotive manufacturing, output increased by 12.5%, including buses by 64.7% and trucks by 46.6%. In the food industry, growth reached 8.7%, including vegetable oil by 16.0% and flour by 31.2%.
The market services sector reached 293.6 trillion soums. The largest segments were trade with 75.1 trillion soums, transport with 49.1 trillion soums, financial services with 46.8 trillion soums, accommodation and food services with 46.2 trillion soums, and information and communication services with 22.8 trillion soums. The highest growth rates were recorded in education at 22.5% and financial services at 22.4%.
Agriculture also maintained positive momentum. Sectoral growth reached 5.1%, while vegetable production increased by 29%, contributing to food price stabilization in the domestic market.
Investment activity reached a record level. Investment in fixed capital and development projects totaled $12.85 bn, increasing by 41.5%. Foreign direct investment rose by 45.7% to $8.84 bn. During the quarter, 1,508 new projects with a total value of $1.185 bn were launched nationwide.
In foreign trade, total exports amounted to $5.81 bn. Excluding gold, exports increased by 26.4%, indicating continued expansion of non-commodity exports. Imports rose to $12.21 bn (+30.8%) amid growing investment and production demand.
The inflation environment improved significantly. During January–March, consumer prices increased by 1.93%, while annual inflation in March declined to 7.07% compared to 10.34% a year earlier.
Regionally, Navoi region, Tashkent city, and Tashkent region led in industrial production volume. The highest construction growth was recorded in the Republic of Karakalpakstan at 176.0%. Tashkent city remained the leader in services development, where nominal growth reached 18.4%.
Social indicators also showed positive trends. The poverty rate declined to 5.0%, while unemployment stood at 4.7%. By mid-year, both indicators are projected to decrease further to 4.3%.
By the end of 2026, strong economic growth is expected to continue. Real GDP growth is projected in the range of 8.3–8.7%, with services growth at 9.1%, industry at 8.7%, and construction at 11.5%.
Center for Economic Research and Reforms Media Sector
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