CERR has published the results of its July 2025 business climate analysis based on surveys of entrepreneurs across the country. The analysis formed the Business Climate Index, which reflects current assessments of the business environment and expectations for its development in the near future.
In June, the composite business climate indicator increased by 10 points compared to the same period last year, reaching 63 points, which indicates growing long-term confidence among businesses. Compared to the previous month, the index also rose by 2 points, the highest figure since the beginning of the year.
The Current Conditions Index reached 47 points in June, up by 13 points year-on-year, reflecting entrepreneurs’ perception of actual business conditions such as sales, employment, demand, access to resources, and the stability of the operating environment.
Meanwhile, the Expectations Index rose by 6 points over the year, reaching 80 points, reflecting growing business confidence in future stability.
According to the survey, 38% of respondents reported an improvement in their business situation over the past three months, 38% observed an increase in demand, 24% reported growth in employment.
In terms of expectations, 71% expect demand to grow, 59% forecast further increases in employment, 21% anticipate price increases.
In June 2025, the Business Climate Index in industry showed positive dynamics, rising by 5 points year-on-year to 59 points. Expectations for business development increased from 73 to 83 points, while assessments of the current situation remained stable at 37 points.
According to the survey, 38% of industrial enterprises reported improved business activity in the last three months (compared to 32% in June 2024), and 79% expect further improvements in the business environment (vs. 71% a year earlier).
The agriculture sector also improved by 3 points year-on-year, reaching 59 points. The current conditions index increased by 6 points (from 35 to 41), and the expectations index grew by 3 points (from 80 to 83).
Survey results show that 49% of agricultural entrepreneurs assess their current business conditions as satisfactory. Meanwhile, 22% reported employment growth over the past three months, and 79% expect further improvement in business activity in the near term.
In the services sector, the business climate improved by 17 points year-on-year, reaching 68 points. Optimism rose by 11 points (from 68 to 79), and the current conditions index increased by 22 points (from 34 to 57). 47% of service-sector entrepreneurs assess the current situation as “good,” 39% noted improvements in business conditions over the past three months, and 71% expect demand to grow going forward.
In the construction sector, the business climate rose by 4 points year-on-year to 61 points. The current conditions index increased by 15 points to 49, while the expectations index declined by 9 points to 73.
Nevertheless, 36% of respondents reported improved conditions in construction over the past three months, and another 21% expect no change. Overall, the construction sector is demonstrating resilience and adaptability to ongoing changes.
In summary, the business climate in Uzbekistan continues to show positive momentum, with steady growth in business activity across most sectors. Industry and agriculture are showing the highest optimism, while the services sector maintains moderate growth.
The Uzbekistan Business Climate Index is calculated by CERR based on surveys of over 1,000 enterprises from various industries. The index is constructed using the methodology of Germany’s IFO Institute. During the surveys, business executives assess current and expected changes in the business environment based on production dynamics, demand, and other key factors.
Banking and Financial Sector Research Unit
Tel: (78) 150 02 02 (ext. 441)
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