According to analytics firm Kpler, exports of crude oil and condensate from the Middle East (excluding Iran) recovered to 18.11 million tonnes per week in September, approaching the level recorded before the conflict began in February 2026 (18.22 million tonnes).
Meanwhile, petroleum product exports from Middle Eastern countries remain at less than half their pre-conflict levels due to disruptions at refining facilities. Asian refineries could offset this shortfall by increasing crude oil processing and fuel exports.
According to the Energy Institute, Asia accounts for 37% of global oil refining capacity. In 2025, the Middle East supplied 60% of Asia's crude oil imports.
The International Energy Agency estimates that supply disruptions forced Asian refineries to reduce crude oil processing by 6 million barrels per day in April 2026. The recovery in supplies will allow refineries to increase capacity utilization.
India's refining capacity stands at 5.1 million barrels per day, while China has the world's largest refining capacity at 18.8 million barrels per day. South Korea and Singapore also have the potential to increase petroleum product output and exports.
High fuel prices are improving refining profitability. The recovery of crude oil supplies from the Middle East will enable Asian refineries to expand fuel production and exports to Europe, Africa, and other Asian markets.
According to China's customs statistics, the country's exports increased by 36.3% year-on-year in September 2026, up from 25% in August and exceeding the forecast of 25.5%. This marked the strongest growth since February, when exports rose by 39.6%. Imports increased by 31%, compared with 28.2% in August, also exceeding the forecast of 24.5%.
Export growth is being driven by strong demand for Chinese semiconductors and technology products used in artificial intelligence. Rising overseas shipments are supporting China's industrial production amid weak domestic consumption and investment activity.
In September, exports of rare earth metals increased by 6.7% year-on-year to 4,270 tonnes. However, exports declined by 9.8% compared with August. Over January–September 2026, shipments fell by 9.6% to 43,700 tonnes.
China's trade surplus reached $938.11 billion in January–September 2026. If current export growth rates are maintained, the surplus could exceed $1 trillion in the coming months.
Sustained export growth is supporting China's economic expansion and reducing the need for additional government stimulus measures. The country's GDP growth target for 2026 is 4.5–5%. Potential new trade restrictions imposed by the United States and the European Union remain among the main risks.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 from 3.0% to 3.1%, while maintaining its projection for 2027 at 3.4%.
The Fund also expects global inflation to reach 4.7% in 2026. Investment in artificial intelligence is among the factors supporting economic growth, while high energy prices, rising public debt, and geopolitical risks continue to constrain economic activity.
According to the forecast, 32 countries account for 95% of global economic growth. This reflects the increasing concentration of economic activity in countries benefiting from the technology investment cycle and favorable external economic conditions.
In its Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF identified three major risks: a potential correction in the valuations of AI-related companies, rising government bond yields, and large-scale cyber incidents capable of disrupting the financial system.
The global economy is becoming increasingly divided between countries participating in emerging technology value chains and those that remain primarily consumers of technology.
CERR Public Relations Sector
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