The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) conducted another round of surveys among enterprises across the country. More than 1,000 companies took part in the April survey in two areas: a qualitative assessment of the current state of business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their business for the next 3 months.
The results of the CERR survey showed that in April, in the sectoral context of the consolidated indicator of the business climate in agriculture, there was a significant increase (+20% compared to March this year). At the same time, the indicator of the current state of business in agriculture increased by 10 points, and the most noticeable growth (+29%) of the indicator of expectations it is also observed in agriculture. Thus, it is the agriculture sector that shows the most resistant to risks and shocks, and the reforms carried out by the government in the industry increase its productivity, experts say.
Compared to March 2022, the consolidated business climate indicator remained unchanged and amounted to 54 points, which assesses the state of the business climate in the country as positive.
In the sectoral context, the indicator of the business climate in agriculture amounted to 61 points, services – 55 points (March 2022 – 59 points), construction – 51 points (March 2022 – 56 points) and industry – 48 points (March 2022 – 50 points).
The sampling methodology is a sector stratified random sample, according to the methodology of the "Enterprise Survey" of the World Bank.
The components of the business climate summary indicator have changed as follows:
The indicator of the current state of business was 33 points, which characterizes the positive mood of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of business.
The share of respondents who noted the current state of their business as good was 33%. When asked how the state of business has changed over the past 3 months, 32% of entrepreneurs answered that it has improved, 51% – has not changed and 17% – has worsened.
Demand for goods/services improved in 41% of enterprises, while the number of employees increased in 23% of enterprises.
The indicator of the current state in agriculture amounted to 43 points, services – 34 points, industry – 20 points and construction – 34 points.
The indicator of expectation of business development prospects amounted to 78 points, which reflects the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects of their business development for the next 3 months as optimistic.
81% of entrepreneurs believe that their business prospects will improve. Demand for goods and services is expected to improve at 73% of enterprises, 65% of respondents expect an increase in the number of employees.
35% of entrepreneurs believe that the prices of goods/services will not change in the next 3 months, 30% expect an increase in prices, 28% of respondents do not know how the prices of their goods/services will change in the near future, and 6% predict a decrease in prices.
The breakdown of the expectation indicator by sectors showed the following dynamics: agriculture – 80 points, industry – 79 points, construction – 70 points and services – 77 points.
In general, the relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that, according to the estimates of business entities, the positive trend in economic development will continue in the next 3 months.
Among all surveyed entrepreneurs, 37% noted that there were no obstacles in the development of their entrepreneurial activity.
Dynamics of the business climate indicator
Dynamics of the business climate indicator in the sectoral context
Feruzbek Davletov, CERR