Business climate is an analytical indicator that is calculated monthly based on a survey conducted by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) since 2020.
The participation of enterprises in surveys allows us to get information about the current economic situation before it is reflected in official statistics, and estimates of the expectations of enterprises provide leading indicators of economic activity.
The growth of the consolidated business climate was determined by the positive dynamics of both current estimates and expectations.
In January, the consolidated indicator of the CERR business climate increased by 7 points to 61 compared to December, which indicates a further expansion of business activity. Whereas in January last year, the combined figure was 54 points.
The improvement of the business climate was significantly influenced by the positive dynamics in the industrial sector, where the composite indicator increased by 30 points, in construction by 13 and agriculture by 9 points, respectively.
At the same time, the January survey results reflected a decrease in business estimates in the service sector by 8 points.
Current business estimates have improved in most economic activities.
Estimates of the current state of the business, relative to last month, improved by only 1 point to 43, whereas compared to January last year, an increase of 9 points was noted.
In turn, this is due to sharp fluctuations in indicators of the current state in industry and in the service sector. If the main contribution to improving the current state of business in January was made in industry, where growth amounted to 22 points, then in the service sector there was a decrease of 16 points.
Overall, the assessments of the current state of the business were as follows: 41% as "good" and 13% as "bad". Assessing the current demand for goods and services, 35% of enterprises noted an increase. At the same time, 17% of companies have increased the number of their employees.
Expectations of business development prospects signal a fairly high level of optimism among entrepreneurs.
The consolidated indicator of expectations regarding business development prospects in the next 3 months has reached a record high of 81 points over the past two years, mainly due to a significant improvement in optimism in industry – up to 92 and construction – up to 81 points, respectively.
According to the survey results, 79% of enterprises expect an improvement in the overall state of their business. Enterprises' expectations for demand for goods and services amounted to 74%. Almost 72% of employers are ready to increase the number of employees in their company.
In January, the relationship between the current state and expectations showed a positive trend in the development of the economy, which will continue in the next three months.
Almost half of the surveyed entrepreneurs noted the presence of barriers in running their business.
According to the survey, entrepreneurs from the industrial sector were less likely to report obstacles related to electricity and gas supply, as well as high prices for raw materials, while problems with access to finance and tax rates began to be reported more often.
Representatives of agriculture were more worried about problems related to water supply. At the same time, the share of businesses has decreased, noting problems of access to land, tax administration, high prices for raw materials and their insufficiency and high tax rates.
At the same time, the construction sector has seen an improvement in access to finance and land, while there are more such problems in the service sector.
Feruzbek Davletov, CERR
Phone.: (+998) 78 150-02-02 (416)
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