Uzbekistan Economy Development In 9 Months 2024

During this period, positive dynamics developed in the main economic partner countries. In Kazakhstan, GDP grew by 4%, in Kyrgyzstan by 8.4%. In Russia, according to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, GDP grew by 4.2% in January-August.

In 9 months of 2024, Uzbekistan has seen an acceleration in price growth. The consumer price index increased by 6.8% in September (prices increased by 5.1% in the same period of the previous year). In annual terms, the price increase was 10.5% (by the end of September 2023 – 9.2%). At the same time, due to seasonal fluctuations, food prices have decreased by 1.4% since the beginning of the year (an increase of 5.6% was observed in 9 months of 2023). The dynamics of price growth for non-food products accelerated to 5.5% (in January–September 2023 - 4.8%). The largest price increase was observed for services by 24% (for 9 months of 2023 – 4.7%) mainly due to an increase in energy tariffs, which increased by 66% during the period under review.

There is a high dynamics of attracting investments. During the period under review, the volume of investments in fixed assets increased by 31%, whereas in the same period last year the growth amounted to 18.9%. The main inflow is observed for non–centralized investments - an increase of 35%, mainly due to an increase in the rate of attracting foreign direct investment by 47%. Investments at the expense of the population also increased by 5.1%, and enterprises by 0.7%. At the same time, investments due to loans from commercial banks decreased by 26%. The volume of centralized investments increased by 5.9%, while it is worth noting a 26% reduction in investments at the expense of budgetary funds.

In January-September, the share of centralized investments in the total volume of investments in fixed assets decreased to 10.8% (from 13.3% in January-September 2023), non-centralized, respectively, increased to 89.2%.

During this period, production growth was noted in all sectors of the economy.

In agriculture, the growth rate of output slowed slightly compared to last year to 3.1% (in January-September 2023 – 4.1%). The output of crop and livestock production increased by 3.1%, forestry by 2.9%, and fisheries by 1.3%.

Industrial production is showing outstripping dynamics – an increase of 7% in the first 9 months of this year (5.7% in January-September 2023). In the manufacturing industry, production increased by 8.2% (January-September 2023 - 6.4%), in the extractive industry it increased by 1.3% (for 9 months of 2023 – 0.4%). In the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning sector, the growth rate is slightly lower compared to last year – 4.5% versus 8.9% in January-September 2023, similarly in the water supply and waste disposal sector – 5.9% versus 6.8%.

The dynamics of construction work accelerated from 7.1% in January-September 2023 to 9.1% in 9 months of 2024.

The volume of market services provided increased by 12.8% during the period under review (January-September 2023 – 12%). In the context of service sectors, the largest increase was observed in the field of information and communications by 23%, financial services – 20%, education services – 16%, real estate services – 13%, trade – 11%, accommodation and catering services – 10%. Retail trade turnover increased by 9.2% during the period under review (January-September 2023 – 7.4%).

The volume of transport services in January-September 2024 increased by 8.6%, including motor transport by 12%. Cargo turnover increased by 3.9%, passenger turnover by 5.8%.

Compared to last year, the dynamics of foreign trade has slowed down. According to the results of 9 months, foreign trade turnover increased by 7.7% (January-September 2023 – 22%) and amounted to $48.2 billion. Exports increased by 11% (January-September 2023 – 23%), imports by 5.2% (January-September 2023 – 5.2%).

By product type, exports of fuels and lubricants increased by 50%, services by 30%, chemical products by 26%, food products by 13%, industrial goods by 3.7%, however, exports of machinery and transport equipment decreased by 6%, various finished products by 13%.

At the same time, imports of fuels and lubricants increased by 59%, services by 42%, food products by 4.2%, various finished products by 2.7%, but decreased in machinery and transport equipment by 2.2%, industrial goods by 4.3%, chemical products - by 3.1%, non-food raw materials by 3.6%.

Thus, in 9 months, the Uzbek economy has demonstrated steady growth. By the end of the year, GDP is expected to increase by at least 6%.

Ruslan Abaturov, CERR