Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) in February this year surveyed 1,700 enterprises across the country to find out how they assess the prospects for their business development.
The survey was conducted in two areas: a qualitative assessment of the current state of the business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their business for the next three months.
The summary indicator of the business climate was 60 points, which assesses the state of the business climate in the country as positive. This figure is almost 2 times higher than in the crisis period - April last year.
In the sectoral context, the indicator of the business climate in agriculture was 68 points, services - 59 points, in construction - 65 points and industry - 52 points.
In the regional context, high indicators of the composite indicator of the business climate were noted in Namangan (67 points), Fergana (67 points), Surkhandarya (66 points) and Andijan (66 points) regions. The indicator was relatively lower than the national average in the Navoi region (45 points), in the Republic of Karakalpakstan (49 points) and in Tashkent (49 points).
It should be noted that the assessment of the indicator in the context of regions was carried out for the first time in February of this year.
Indicator of the current state of the business in February of this year amounted to 44 points, which characterizes the positive sentiment of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of the business.
The current state of entrepreneurs in the industrial sector has significantly improved - an increase of 10 points compared to the last month of this year. In the service sector, the value remained at the previous level.
Relatively high indicators of the indicator of the current state were noted in Bukhara (56 points) and Syrdarya (53 points) regions. In Namangan, Jizzakh and Khorezm regions, it was equal to 51 points.
A relatively high share of enterprises reporting an improvement in demand for goods / services was recorded in the Andijan region (44%), while a relatively low share in the city of Tashkent (25%).
A relatively high share of enterprises reporting an increase in the number of employees was recorded in the Kashkadarya region (27%), while the smallest - in the city of Tashkent (13%).
The indicator of expectations of business development prospects in February was 77 points, which reflects the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects for their business development for the next 3 months as optimistic.
79% of respondents believe that their business prospects will improve, 18% - will not change and only 3% expect deterioration.
In contrast to the current state, the most optimistic expectations are formed by business entities in agriculture (87 points) and construction (85 points).
Among the regions, the highest indicators of the expectation indicator were noted in Andijan (92 points), Kashkadarya (90 points) and Fergana (89 points) regions.
The highest shares of enterprises reporting an expected improvement in demand for goods / services were recorded in Fergana (84%) and Andijan (81%) regions.
In general, the relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that, according to the estimates of business entities, a positive trend in economic development will continue in the next 3 months.
The survey data indicate that the economic recovery is sustainable in the current year, despite the adverse natural events, which is due to the effectiveness of the reforms carried out over the past four years, which ensured friendly business climate and economic stability.
Feruzbek Davletov, CERR
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