Along with the demand for real estate in Uzbekistan, sales of domestic cars increased in February. The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) regularly analyzes changes in demand in the real estate and car markets. Increasing demand in these markets in January-February indicates a recovery in economic activity in Uzbekistan.
Real estate market
During the coronavirus pandemic, economic activity dropped due to the quarantine restrictions. In particular, in April, the lockdown led to a decrease in demand for real estate by 87.1% (by 94.2% in Tashkent and 89.8% in the Tashkent region) compared to the same period in 2019.
In February of this year the number of real estate contracts increased by 11.5% compared to January (by 19.7% compared to February 2020). In Tashkent, which accounts for more than 30% of the real estate market, this figure was 10.8% (23.7% by February 2020).
Fig. 1. Index of changes in the number of executed contracts for the purchase and sale of real estate
Average of monthly growth in car sales in the primary and secondary markets is 2-3%. Implementing strict quarantine measures from mid-March 2020, the number of registered and re-registered cars in March decreased by 17.3% compared to the same period in 2019 (34.6% compared to the previous month) and in April - by 73. 8% (by 63.1%) (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2. Index of changes in the number of registered and re-registered vehicles
Since May, the situation in the car market has begun to recover again. In particular, in June car sales increased by 14.8% compared to the same period in 2019 (15.7% compared to the previous month). In August this figure was 3.8% (54.3% to the previous month).
The demand in the car market during September-October also continued to grow. Compared to the corresponding period of 2019, sales increased in September by 29.5%, in October by 19.2%, in November by 9% and in December by 10%.
In February of this year, the demand of the population in the car market increased by 3% compared to January. However, compared to February 2020, this indicator decreased by 10.4%. This is mainly due to the fact that the Asaka plant temporarily stopped production in January-February 2021 to carry out all the necessary upgrades.
By region, the highest growth rates were observed in Andijan (37%), Bukhara (18.4%) and Kashkadarya (18%) regions.
* A detailed analysis of the real estate and automobile markets can be provided upon request to the Center for Economic Research and Reform.
Khalilullokh Khamidov, Leading Researcher, CERR