The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has prepared the 1st issue of the Quarterly Macroeconomic Overview. It presents an analysis of the key directions of the country's development and gives an economic forecast for 2023.
The macroeconomic overview is a regular publication of the CERR, which presents an operational cross-section of the macroeconomic situation in Uzbekistan, estimates its development in the short term.
The publication analyzes a wide range of economic indicators, including GDP, industry, investment, consumer spending, inflation, interest rates, lending, domestic and foreign trade, revenues, expenditures and government budget deficits, cyclically adjusted fiscal balance.
The estimates and forecasts contained in the macroeconomic review are an integral element of the analysis and monitoring of socio-economic development in the Republic of Uzbekistan.
The overview covers the monitoring of the economic state and the main trends in the development of the national economy, including issues of state policy in the field of monetary, budgetary and other spheres of socio-economic development, which form short-term economic prospects.
The goal of the overview is to assess the prospects for development in the field of economic policy to ensure conditions for maintaining macroeconomic stability and promoting sustainable socio-economic development of the national economy.
The key conclusions of the CERR Macroeconomic Overview for January-June 2023 include the following estimates:
- Analysis of gross demand factors shows that the main driver of economic growth was an increase in gross consumer spending of the population.
- In May, the nominal amount of household income increased by 24.6% compared to the same period last year.
- The consumer sentiment index shows that optimistic sentiment in the economy remains at a high level.
- An increase in consumer spending of the population and an increase in economic activity is expected.
- Further stimulation of the economy through fiscal and monetary means may create inflationary pressure.
- The trend of recent years indicates that structural and technological changes are taking place in the economy, and the efficiency of resource allocation is increasing.
- Analysis of the fiscal sector shows that fiscal policy is in a pro-cyclical state, that is, although economic growth has returned to its potential, it continues to stimulate the economy.
- The index of terms of trade in the first half of 2023 was 89.7 (the base period of 2019 is 100). Compared to the beginning of 2019, the terms of trade have improved for leather goods, copper and copper products, ceramics, silk products, ferrous metals, plastics and shoes.
- According to the calculations of the CERR, in 2023, according to the baseline scenario, the gross domestic product of Uzbekistan is expected to grow by 5.8%.
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