Economic development of Uzbekistan in the first half of 2024

There was a positive trend in the economies of the main trading partners in the 1st half of the year. In Kazakhstan, GDP grew by 3.3%, in Kyrgyzstan - by 8.1%. In China, the economy grew by 5% during the period under review. In Russia, according to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, GDP grew by 5% in January-May.

Inflation. In the first half of the year, prices increased by 5.2% compared to December last year. Inflation is accelerating – by the end of June 2023, the consumer price index increased by 3.5%. In annual terms, inflation has also accelerated to 10.6% (by the end of June 2023 – 9%). At the same time, since the beginning of the year, food prices have decreased by 1.3% (in June 2023 – an increase of 4.1%). Prices for non–food products increased by 3.3% compared to December of the previous year (June 2023 - 3.1%). The main impact on the consolidated CPI was a 21.1% increase in prices for services (June 2023 – 2.9%) against the background of an increase in energy tariffs. Thus, in 6 months, prices for electricity, gas and other fuels increased by 66%.

The unprecedented investment activity of the first three months since the beginning of the year (growth by 75%) has slowed down somewhat, but remains high. In January-June, the volume of investments in fixed assets increased by 37%. Centralized investments increased by 21%. Non-centralized investments increased by 39%. There is a high growth of foreign direct investment by 47%. The volume of investments at the expense of enterprises increased by 4.3%, the funds of the population by 3.9%, but decreased at the expense of banks by 27%.

In general, by the end of the half-year, the share of centralized investments decreased to 10.7%, while the share of non-centralized investments increased to 89.3%, respectively.

There is an increase in production in all sectors of the economy.

The volume of agricultural output increased by 3.8% (also 3.8% in January-June 2023). The output of crop and livestock production increased by 3.8%, forestry by 2.8%, and fishing by 4.6%.

Industrial production in the first half of the year increased by 7.8% (in January-June 2023 – 5.6%). By sector, production in the manufacturing industry increased by 9.4% (January-June 2023 – 6.3%), in the extractive industry by 0.5%. Output growth slowed in the sectors of electricity, gas supply, gas supply and air conditioning to 4.3% (January-June 2023 - 9.9%), water supply and waste disposal to 0.3% (January-June 2023 – 3.6%).

Output in the construction sector grew at a faster pace in the first half of the year – 10.1% versus 5.6% in January-June 2023.

The volume of market services provided increased by 12.9% in January-June of this year (12.3% in the same period last year). By service sector, the largest growth was observed in information and communications by 20%, financial services by 20%, education by 22%, real estate services by 13%, and healthcare by 11%. Retail turnover increased by 8.4% (by 6.9% in the 1st half of 2023).

In the field of transport, the volume of services provided increased by 6.5%, cargo turnover by 4%, passenger turnover by 5.3%.

The growth rate of foreign trade volumes has slowed down compared to last year's figures. Thus, foreign trade turnover increased by 8.5% to $ 32 billion (in January-June 2023, the growth was 20%). Exports increased by 5.5% (January-June 2023 – 25%) to $ 13 billion, imports - by 10.6% (January-June 2023 – 17%) to $18.8 billion.

In January-June 2024, exports of fuel and energy materials increased by 40%, chemical products by 33%, services by 26%, and raw materials by 8%. At the same time, exports of food products decreased by 2.3%, industrial goods by 3%, and various finished products by 13%.

During the period under review, imports of fuel and energy materials increased by 66%, services by 57%, finished goods by 7.4%, machinery and transport equipment by 5.6%, and industrial goods by 2.1%.

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In general, the first half of this year was favorable for the economy of Uzbekistan. Business and investment activity allowed us to reach a leading trend.

Ruslan Abaturov, CERR