In March, Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) interviewed about 1000 enterprises throughout the country in order to find out how they assess the prospects for the development of their business for the next three months.
The survey was conducted in two areas: a qualitative assessment of the current business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their business for the next three months.
The consolidated indicator of the business climate increased by 5 points compared to February and amounted to 65 points, which assesses the state of the business climate in the country as positive. This figure is 2 times higher than the crisis period of April last year.
In the sectoral context, the indicator of the business climate in the field of agriculture increased by 13 points and amounted to 81 points, services showed a slight decrease by 1 point compared to the previous month and amounted to 58 points in March, the construction and industry grew by 2 points and amounted to 67 and 54 points, respectively.
The increase in the consolidated indicator of the business climate is associated with the growth of the following components of the indicator:
The indicator of the current business state in March increased by 3 points and amounted to 47 points.
The share of respondents who noted the current state of their business as good remained at the same level (41%). The demand for goods / services improved in 40% of enterprises (in February 37%), while the number of employees increased in 28% of enterprises (in February 20%).
The sentiment of agricultural entrepreneurs improved significantly from 50 points in February to 70 points in March.
Last month, slight declines were noted in industry - 38 points (39 points in February), construction - 42 points (45 points in February) and services - 36 points (43 points in February).
Service sector representatives associate the poor state of business with a decrease in demand for goods and services (21%) and difficulties in paying for loans (21%).
An indicator of expectations for business development prospects in March of this year increased by 6 points and amounted to 83 points, which reflects the expectations of entrepreneurs’ ambition to develop their business the next 3 months.
83% of respondents estimated that their business prospects will improve (79% in February). The number of entrepreneurs who expect that the demand for goods and services will improve was, like last month, 73%.
Unlike the current state of the business, representatives from all spheres have optimistic expectations:
- construction - 94 points;
- agriculture - 93 points;
- services - 82 points;
- industry - 71 points.
Most of the representatives of the enterprises indicated the need for further support of their business. The entrepreneurs concerned problems: the provision of credit funds, the allocation of land plots, a decrease in tax rates and a decrease in interest rates on loans.
In general, the relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that, according to the estimates of business entities, a positive trend in economic development will continue in the next 3 months.
The results of the study indicate a consistent economic recovery from the consequences associated with the coronavirus pandemic and adverse natural events, the reforms carried out in recent years in the field of improving the business environment and creating a favorable business climate.
Feruzbek Davletov, CERR