The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) regularly analyzes changes in demand in the real estate and car markets. There is a gradual increase in demand in these markets during January-April and it indicates a recovery of economic activity in Uzbekistan.
In April, population’s demand for automobiles shows moderate growth, having increased by 14.1% compared to March of this year. The growth in car sales was 355.9% compared to April 2020, and 19.6% compared to the same period in 2019.
Fig.1. Index of changes in the number of registered and re-registered cars in April 2021.
In April 2020, this indicator decreased by 75.8% compared to February and by 63.1% compared to March.
During the reporting period, the number of registered and re-registered cars increased rapidly in Tashkent (28.9%), Bukhara (31.4%), Surkhandarya (18.8%), Samarkand (17.8%) regions, while a decrease was recorded in Jizzakh (6.0%), Khorezm (3.9%) regions.
In January-April 2021, 59.6 thousand new cars were registered. From these, 2.9 thousand (4.9%) are foreign cars.
The most foreign cars were sold in Tashkent (11.8% of new cars), Tashkent (5.6%), Samarkand (3.3%) and Khorezm (2.7%) regions.
Fig.2. The sales share of new domestic cars and foreign cars in January-April 2021
The coronavirus pandemic has definitely impacted car sales in 2020; while demand for autos was high, stocks were hampered by the closure of production facilities and a shortage of chips, which became a global problem.
Economies around the world continue to show clear signs of recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. For example, the new car market in Japan grew by more than 29% to 349.9 thousand units in April 2021, compared with low sales of 270.4 thousand units a year earlier. Business sentiment has improved significantly over the past two months, despite new measures put in place by the government to contain the recent surge in COVID-19 infections.
The new car market in China grew 8.6% to 2.25 million units in April 2021 from 2.07 million in the same month last year. The country's auto market has now fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, because of deferred demand and low interest rates.
In conclusion, it should be noted that the real estate and auto markets in Uzbekistan are expecting a certain boom, determined by deferred demand. The number of transactions will continue to grow and may set local records, but prices will not rise sharply.
* A detailed analysis of the real estate and automobile markets can be provided upon request to the Center for Economic Research and Reform.
Khalilullokh Khamidov, Chief Researcher, CERR
tel: (78) 150-02-02