The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) regularly analyzes changes in demand in the real estate and car markets. An increase in the demand in these markets during January-April indicates a full recovery of economic activity in Uzbekistan.
In April 2021, the number of real estate contracts signed in the country amounted to 20.8 thousand, which is 2.5% more than in March, an increase is 28.1% as compared to that in April 2019 (16.2 thousand). Due to the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020, this figure fell to 2.1 thousand, which was 87.6% less than in February and 86.1% less than in March.
Fig. 1. Index of changes in the number of executed contracts for the purchase and sale of real estate in April 2021.
In Tashkent city, which accounts for more than 30% of the real estate market, the number of contracts for the sale and purchase of the real estate in April 2021 amounted to 6.76 thousand, which is 9.5% more than in March. At the same time, growth over the same period in 2019 amounted to 83.4%.
In the regional context, the highest annual growth rates of concluded contracts with the real estate were recorded in Tashkent city (9.5%), Fergana (9.4%), Syrdarya (5.9%) and Tashkent (3.3%) regions.
It should be noted that this indicator decreased in Surkhandarya (13.7%), Jizzakh (9.9%) and Navoi (8.4%) regions.
In the 1st quarter of 2021, mortgage loans were allocated for a total amount of 1578.3 billion soums. As of April 1, the stock of mortgage loans amounted to 29.4 trillion soums, which is 7.1 trillion soums (or 31.8%) more as compared to the same period last year.
Among these, Tashkent city accounts for 455.5 billion soums (28.8% of the total volume of mortgage loans), Andijan – 144.5 billion soums (9.1%), Fergana – 127.9 billion soums (8,1%) and Surkhandarya – 122.9 billion soums (7.8%).
Fig. 2. Mortgage loans issued in January-March 2021
The results of the analysis show that the measures taken by the government to support the mortgage market have begun to yield positive results.
In addition, the real estate market is supported by the program, which began in early March this year. The total amount of funding for housing construction programs in Uzbekistan is 1.1 billion soums. At the same time, the main reason for the increase in construction volume remains the high demand of the population for housing. Thus, housing prices are not expected to rise, as the government has set a target of no more than 4 million soums per square meter of housing. In particular, it is planned to achieve this through the supply of inexpensive building materials.
The implementation of the housing program will also help support the construction market, which will in turn give an additional impetus to economic development in the post-pandemic period.
* A detailed analysis of the real estate and automobile markets can be provided upon request to the Center for Economic Research and Reforms.
Khalilullokh Khamidov, Chief Researcher, CERR
tel: (78) 150-02-02
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