The seminar was organized to develop deep decarbonization scenarios for key sectors of the economy.
For the first time in Uzbekistan, the opportunities for a low-carbon transformation of the AFOLU sector are being examined in a comprehensive manner. This area is of strategic importance from the perspective of ensuring economic stability, food security, and the rational use of natural resources.
Opening remarks were delivered by CERR Deputy Director Khurshed Asadov. He noted that “Uzbekistan is the largest consumer of water in the Central Asian region. Agriculture alone uses an average of 38–42 km³ of water annually, accounting for around 40% of the region’s total agricultural water consumption.
The sustainable development of the AFOLU sector is a critical component of improving water-use efficiency, ensuring food security, and strengthening the country’s long-term environmental sustainability.”
It was also emphasized that, as part of the decarbonization agenda, the government has set targets by 2035 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 50%, increase the share of renewable energy to 40%, and plant 200 million trees annually over five years.
Highlighting the importance of a systemic approach to the low-carbon transformation of the economy, CERR Sector Head Abdurashid Bozorov stated that “according to CERR estimates, climate change reduces annual per capita GDP growth in Central Asia by 1–2 percentage points. Over the past 20 years, the region’s average temperature has risen by 1.5°C, water levels in the Amu Darya have fallen by 30%, and in the Syr Darya by 10%.”
The expert also recalled that the main sources of emissions in Uzbekistan’s economy remain the energy sector (76%), agriculture (18%), industry (5%), and waste (1%).
The seminar brought together leading international and domestic experts. International participants included specialists from the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Decarbonization Experts Alliance, Basque Centre for Climate Change, UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Asian Development Bank, as well as the International Agricultural University.
The Uzbek side was represented by officials from the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uzbekistan, National Committee on Ecology and Climate Change, Forestry Agency of Uzbekistan, and faculty members of the Central Asian Green University.
Speaking on agriculture, forestry, and land use, participants emphasized their key importance for Uzbekistan. Agriculture accounts for 18% of the country’s GDP, provides employment for 24% of the population, and consumes around 90% of water resources. Therefore, amid climate change, increasing pressure on natural resources, and the need to improve production efficiency, decarbonization is becoming an essential condition for sustainable development and the long-term competitiveness of the economy.
During the discussions, international experts shared best practices in developing decarbonization scenarios, the application of the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land Use and Energy (FABLE) model for forecasting food and land systems, and modern approaches to improving forestry efficiency and increasing carbon sequestration potential.
As part of the seminar, Uzbek specialists presented assessments of the current state of the sectors under review, as well as ongoing low-carbon development measures, water resource management issues, and pastureland restoration efforts.
FABLE is an international analytical modeling tool used to assess development scenarios for food systems, land use, biodiversity, and climate policy.
Special attention was given to practical steps for the medium and long term. Among the priorities for 2026–2030 are the development of national deep decarbonization scenarios, integration of FABLE analytical tools into the strategic planning system, and the launch of priority sectoral initiatives.
In addition, participants reviewed measures to scale up sustainable solutions in crop production, livestock farming, and forestry, as well as to strengthen the role of forests as a natural carbon sink through to 2060.
The event concluded with an analytical session during which experts jointly explored possible development scenarios for the sectors under consideration and further areas of cooperation to advance the green transformation of Uzbekistan’s economy.
CERR Public Relations and Media Sector
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