Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) in Oktober this year interviewed over 1000 enterprises throughout the republic in order to find out how they assess the prospects for their business development.
The monthly survey conducts in two direction: a qualitative assessment of the present status of the firm and entrepreneurs' forecasts for the following three months' growth potential.
The consolidated index of the business climate grew by 5 points in October, reaching 61 points (on a scale of -100 to +100), indicating that the country's business climate is positive.
In the sectoral context, the business climate indicator in the service sector increased by 4 points compared to September and amounted to 61 points, in construction there was an increase by 7 points (65 points), the highest growth was observed in industry and amounted to 9 points compared to last month (55 points in October). At the same time, in the field of agriculture, the business climate indicator showed a slight decrease by 2 points and amounted to 65 points in October of this year.
An increase in the business climate indicator is associated with changes in the following components of the indicator:
The indicator of the current state of business in October of this year increased by 8 points and amounted to 51 points, which characterizes the positive sentiments of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of their business. Compared to October last year, this indicator increased by 16 points.
The growth of the composite indicator of the business climate is associated with changes in the following components of the indicator:
The share of respondents who noted the current state of their business as good was 48% (September - 45%). When asked how the state of business has changed over the past 3 months, 44% of entrepreneurs answered that it has improved (September - 42%), 45% - has not changed (September - 46%) and only 11% have worsened (September - 12%).
The demand for goods / services improved in 53% of enterprises (September - 51%), while the number of employees increased in 31% of enterprises (September - 25%).
The growth of the indicator of the current state of the business climate is associated with changes in the sentiment among entrepreneurs in the industrial sector - 47 points (September - 29 points), construction - 59 points (September - 54 points) and services - 48 points (September - 42 points)
The indicator of expectations of business development prospects in October increased by one point compared to September and amounted to 71 points, which reflects the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects for the development of their business for the next 3 months as optimistic. It should be noted that compared to the same period last year, this indicator has grown by 17 points.
76% of entrepreneurs believe their business prospects will improve (September - 74%). It is expected that the demand for goods and services will improve in 62% of enterprises (September - 65%), an increase in the number of employees is expected by 62% of enterprises (September - 60%).
36% of entrepreneurs expect an increase in prices for goods / services in the next 3 months (September - 26%). 37% believe that prices will not change (September - 29%), and 6% - will go down (September - 4%).
At the same time, 21% of respondents do not know how the prices for their goods / services will change in the near future (September - 41%).
The breakdown of the expectations indicator by industry in October is as follows: agriculture - 76 points (September - 78 points), industry - 63 points (September - 59 points), construction - 71 points (September - 61 points) and services - 74 points (September - 73 points).
In general, the relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that, according to the assessments of business entities, a positive trend in economic development will continue in the next 3 months.
Over a third of the entrepreneurs polled said there were no roadblocks to their business's growth. Access to capital and land, high tax rates, the impact of the epidemic, high costs and shortage of raw resources, and limited demand for goods and services are among the worries.
Feruzbek Davletov, CERR
* Full information about the research is available upon request to the Center for Economic Research and Reforms.
Tel .: (+998) 78 150-02-02 (416) (417)
Tel .: (+998) 78 150-32-20