The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of its analysis of Uzbekistan’s business climate, based on monthly surveys of entrepreneurs across the country.
The survey findings were used to calculate a composite Business Climate Index, which reflects assessments of current business conditions and expectations for the next three months.
In June, the composite Business Climate Index stood at 58 points, up 1 point from May.
An index value above 50 points indicates that optimistic assessments prevail in the business community.
According to the survey, the Current Business Conditions Index stood at 48 points, reflecting restrained assessments among businesses, while the Expectations Index reached 68 points, indicating that business optimism for the next three months remained high.
The survey results point to positive trends in the main indicators of business activity. Business conditions were assessed as “good” by 48% of entrepreneurs, compared with 44% in May, indicating an improvement in current business sentiment.
A rise in demand for goods and services over the past three months was reported by 40% of respondents, up from 37% in May. At the same time, 24% of entrepreneurs reported an increase in the number of employees, slightly below the previous month’s level of 28%.
Compared with the previous month, business climate assessments improved in industry and services, while a slight decline was recorded in agriculture and construction.
In agriculture, the composite Business Climate Index stood at 64 points, slightly below the previous month’s level (70 p). Over the month, both current assessments and entrepreneurs’ expectations improved in the sector.
An improvement in the situation over the past three months was reported by 54% of entrepreneurs, compared with 47% in May. Current business conditions were assessed as “good” by 52% of respondents, up from 49%, while 32% reported an increase in the number of employees, compared with 28% in the previous month.
In construction, the composite Business Climate Index stood at 65 points, down 4 points from 69 in the previous month.
Positive sentiment was maintained across the main indicators of business activity in the construction sector. Over the past three months, conditions improved for 49% of construction companies, 2 percentage points above the May level of 47%. The number of employees increased at 36% of construction companies, 6 percentage points below the previous month’s figure of 42%. Growth in demand for products and services was reported by 36% of construction companies, 15 percentage points below the May level of 51%.
Despite remaining below the level recorded a year earlier, the composite Business Climate Index in industry stood at 49 points, up 3 points from 46 in the previous month. The moderate index value was mainly attributable to industrial enterprises’ assessments of current conditions.
Their business conditions were assessed as “good” by 43% of industrial enterprises, compared with 34% in May. At the same time, 55% expect the number of employees to increase over the next three months, compared with 61% in the previous month. Short-term expectations remained high, with 74% of industrial enterprises expressing optimism about their development prospects over the next three months.
In the services sector, the composite Business Climate Index increased by 3 points to 59, compared with 56 in the previous month, remaining in positive territory. The increase was mainly driven by improved short-term expectations, which reached 67 points, 6 points above the previous month’s level of 61.
Business activity indicators in the services sector remained positive. A total of 76% of companies expressed optimism about their development prospects over the next three months, while 38% of service-sector enterprises reported an improvement in current business conditions over the past three months.
At the end of June, 60% of entrepreneurs reported facing no barriers to doing business, 3 percentage points higher than the previous month’s figure of 57%. The highest shares of positive responses were recorded in services at 63%, agriculture at 59%, construction at 53%, and industry at 52%.
Among the main factors constraining entrepreneurial activity, respondents most frequently cited taxation issues at 20%, including tax administration and tax rates; banking-related problems at 14%, including access to credit, interest rates, and other issues; insufficient demand at 8%; and other financial difficulties at 8%.
By type of economic activity, the most pressing issues in agriculture were financial difficulties and access to land. In industry, respondents more frequently raised concerns related to electricity supply and access to credit. Construction companies pointed to financial constraints, while in the services sector the most significant issues were tax administration and insufficient demand.
CERR Sector for the Study of Industry Competitiveness and Investment Activity
Tel.: (78) 150 02 02 (441)
CERR Public Relations and Media Sector
Tel.: (78) 150 02 02 (417)
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