Cotton Growing in Central Asia in 2016–2025

Central Asian Cotton Market

The main trends in Central Asia’s cotton sector over the decade included:

• a reduction in the region’s cotton-growing area by 300,000 ha, from 2.1 million ha to 1.8 million ha;
• a 32% increase in cotton output, from 4.6 million to 6.1 million tonnes, resulting in an increase in average yields by 12 centners per hectare, from 22 c/ha to 34 c/ha.

This indicates that the economic model is gradually shifting away from extensive, water-intensive production toward higher productivity per hectare.

Another major structural trend across the region has been a sharp decline in exports of unprocessed cotton. The estimated combined exports of the five Central Asian countries fell from 745,000 tonnes in 2016 to 180,000 tonnes in 2025, a decrease of 76%.

* 2025 data are based on the author's estimates using data from open sources.

Country Trends in the Cotton Market

Uzbekistan is the region’s leading cotton producer, accounting for 65% of Central Asia’s cotton harvest in 2025, and has undergone the most profound structural transformation as a result of reforms implemented in 2017–2025.

During the period under review, the key changes in the sector’s systemic transformation included ending the mass mobilization of public-sector workers, introducing market mechanisms throughout the cotton value chain, and reducing the area under cotton as land was reallocated to other agricultural crops.

The area under cotton declined from 1.3 million ha in 2016 to 875,000 ha in 2025 (−30.8%), while output increased from 3 million to approximately 4 million tonnes (+35.2%). As a result, yields almost doubled, from 23.4 to 46 c/ha, reaching a historically high level.

A major element of the restructuring of economic relations in the cotton sector was the piloting and subsequent nationwide expansion of the cluster model, accompanied by the development of a vertically integrated textile industry. Today, more than 140 cotton-textile clusters operate in the country.

At the same time, Uzbekistan effectively phased out exports of raw cotton fiber during the period under review. In 2016, cotton fiber exports amounted to 416,000 tonnes worth $637 million. The country has since developed a full textile production cycle based on domestic raw materials, with an increasing focus on exports of higher-value-added products. For reference, exports of textiles and garments more than tripled over the period, reaching $3 billion.

Turkmenistan is the second-largest cotton producer in the region, accounting for 20% of Central Asia’s total cotton output. According to FAO data, the area under cotton increased from 545,600 ha in 2016 to 580,000 ha and has remained broadly unchanged in recent years. Production remained at around 1.1–1.28 million tonnes through 2022, before falling to 661,000 tonnes in 2023 and 600,000 tonnes in 2024. According to media reports, the country planned to harvest 1.2 million tonnes in 2025. On this basis, the estimated yield increased from 19.6 c/ha to 21.6 c/ha last year.

According to mirror trade statistics, cotton exports declined significantly over the period under review, from 175,000 tonnes in 2016 to less than 10,000 tonnes in recent years. Given that cotton harvests generally remained above 1 million tonnes, this may indicate that Turkmenistan has also taken steps to expand domestic processing and increase the production of higher-value-added goods.

Kazakhstan increased cotton production by 1.6 times over the period under review, from 287,000 tonnes in 2016 to 466,000 tonnes in 2025. A particularly strong increase was recorded in 2025, when the harvest rose by 54%. In recent years, production has been fully concentrated in the Turkistan Region. The area under cotton increased by 32.8% to 145,600 ha, while yields rose from 26.2 to 32.0 c/ha. Growth was therefore driven by both an expansion in cultivated area and higher productivity.

Exports of cotton fiber remain significant. Export volumes increased by 46% to 75,100 tonnes, while their value rose by 56% to $111 million. At the same time, exports declined in 2025 compared with 2024, by 20% in volume terms and 25% in value terms.

In recent years, Kazakhstan has been seeking to expand domestic processing, including through the development of cotton-textile clusters in the Turkistan Region.

In Tajikistan, cotton production increased by 34% in 2017–2025, from 285,000 tonnes to 383,000 tonnes. However, the trajectory was uneven: after reaching 405,000 tonnes in 2022, the harvest fell to 344,000 tonnes in 2023 and 254,000 tonnes in 2024. The area under cotton remained within a range of 160,000–187,000 ha over the period under review. Last year, yields stood at 20.5 c/ha — higher than a year earlier, but below the period’s peak of 22.4 c/ha recorded in 2021.

Tajikistan remains strongly oriented toward cotton fiber exports, which amounted to 93,000 tonnes in 2025. Export volumes declined slightly, by 6.5% compared with 2024. In value terms, exports increased from $120 million in 2016 to $203 million in 2021, before declining steadily in subsequent years to $142 million last year.

Kyrgyzstan is the only country in the region where both the area under cotton and production fell sharply over the decade. A particularly pronounced policy of reducing cotton acreage has been observed since 2022. Overall, the area under cotton declined from 24,400 ha — the maximum recorded during the period under review — to 6,400 ha last year (−73%). Output fell over the same period from 80,000 tonnes to 23,500 tonnes (−70%). At the same time, yields increased from 31.4 c/ha in 2016 to 36.6 c/ha in 2025 and remain among the highest in the region.

Conclusions

Overall, in 2016–2025, Central Asian countries began transitioning toward a more intensive model of cotton production. The reduction in cultivated area was accompanied by increases in both output and yields, with Uzbekistan making the largest contribution to this shift.

Given the water-intensive nature of cotton cultivation, the transition toward a more productive model is critical. Further increases in output should be driven not by expanding irrigated land, but by drip and discrete irrigation, laser land leveling, drought-resistant varieties, digital monitoring, and economically sound water accounting. These priorities are also reflected in plans for 2026. In Uzbekistan, for example, the cotton harvest target for the current year has been raised to 4.5 million tonnes. Tajikistan is also expected to increase output, with cotton planted on 186,800 ha and plans to harvest around 393,000 tonnes.

It should also be noted that the region is seeking to reduce exports of raw cotton and expand domestic processing. At the same time, for Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, the task of deepening the domestic value chain remains particularly relevant.

Overall, Central Asia’s cotton sector retains considerable potential, but its future growth should increasingly be measured in terms of income per hectare, depth of processing, exports of higher-value-added products, and a reduced water footprint. A combination of productivity, transparency, and sustainability will allow the region to develop a competitive cotton industry despite limited land and water resources.

Ruslan Abaturov, CERR