79% of enterprises in Uzbekistan believe their business development prospects will improve – survey by CERR

79% of enterprises in Uzbekistan believe their business development prospects will improve – survey by CERR

The easing of quarantine restrictions and the large-scale measures taken by the government to support the economy made it possible to maintain positive rates of economic growth.

The economic situation in Uzbekistan continues to improve. It is confirmed by the results of enterprise survey in January, which reflects the mood in the Uzbek business communities.

In January 2021, Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) interviewed 1,005 enterprises across the country to find out how they assess the prospects for their business development.

The survey was conducted in two directions: a qualitative assessment of the current situation and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their businesses for the next three months.

In January 2021, the indicator of the current situation amounted to 50 points, an increase of 17 points compared to the previous month, which characterizes the moderately positive sentiment of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of their business.

In particular, the indicator of the current situation in the field of agriculture rose by a record 45 points since the beginning of the pandemic; in the construction sector, the increase was 30 points; the industry sector also recorded an increase of 4 points; services showed the smallest growth by 3 points.

The analysis showed that out of 1005 surveyed enterprises, 38% rated the current situation of their business as "good", 45% - as "satisfactory" and only 17% - as "bad".

42% of the respondents reported that the demand for goods / services "improved", 45% believe - "has not changed", 13% - "worsened". The number of employees “increased” for 18% of enterprises, “did not change” - 74%, “decreased” - 8%.

The indicator of expectations of business development prospects for the next 3 months amounted to 89 points, having increased by 16 points, meaning that the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects of their business development for the next 3 months are positive.

In particular, the growth was shown by the indicators of expectations in the field of agriculture by 5 points; industry by 26 points; construction by 19 points and services by 14 points, respectively.

The analysis revealed that 79% of the surveyed enterprises assessed the prospects of their business would “improve”, 20% said that it would “not change” and only 1% admitted “deterioration”.

It is expected that demand for goods / services will "improve" in 73% of enterprises, 25% are confident that it will "not change", 2% predict a "deterioration" in demand.

More than half of surveyed enterprises plan to “increase” the number of employees over the next three months (66%), while 33% of the respondents answered that the number of employees “will not change” and only 1% answered “it will decrease”.

22% of enterprises predict an “increase” in prices for their goods / services, 28% are sure that prices “will not change”, 2% expect a “decrease” in prices, and 48% “do not know” how the cost of produced goods and services will change.

The business climate indicator shows moderate growth for the second month in a row, having increased by 17 points and amounting to 69 points in January, i.e. experts assess the state of the business climate in the country as “good”.

The relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that the positive trend in economic development will continue for the next 3 months.

In particular, a significant increase by 26 points in January was shown by the indicator of the business climate in agriculture. In industry the growth amounted to 14 points, whereas in construction and services, an increase of 25 and 9 points, respectively, was also recorded.

Assessment of similar indicators of the business climate in January of this year for the main partner countries are as follows: Turkey (7), China (1.3) and South Korea (-15).

Feruzbek Davletov, CERR

Jointly with Media Relations Service of CERR

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