CERR has updated the forecast for the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan

CERR has updated the forecast for the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan

Forecasts by the model based on the "nowcasting" approach have been used by the CERR since 2021 and allow revealing special aspects of GDP that cannot be identified in quarterly indicators.

During the Q3 of 2022, the growing trend in the weekly dynamics of GDP continued, which was observed in the Q2 of this year. It is expected that the increasing growth trend during the Q3 and Q4 2022 will increase the GDP growth rate by at least 0.75% year-on-year compared to the indicators of the 1st half of the year.

A significant economic recovery after a noticeable slowdown in the Q1 was due to an increase in the volume of external trade turnover, business activity in the service sectors and government assistance. In particular, the foreign trade turnover of goods and services increased by 14% and 12% in August and September, respectively. Activity in the service sector also increased significantly, as indicated by an increase in search queries in such categories as "business and industry" (an increase of 14.5%) and "recreation and entertainment" (9.7%).

Taking into account the above-mentioned factors, the projected GDP growth indicators by the end of the third quarter are 5.81% (the projected range was 5.78%-5.83%). At the same time, according to the CERR forecast, no significant fluctuations in economic growth are expected in the short term, as the stability of fundamental economic factors remains.

It is expected that in the Q4, the growth of the Uzbekistan's economy will remain at the level of the Q3 2022. The previous CERR forecast, released in August this year, predicted GDP growth of 5.77% in 2022.

Projected weekly GDP growth in Uzbekistan in 2022

Asror Nigmonov
CERR head of sector

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