CERR Raises Uzbekistan’s 2025 Economic Growth Forecast to 7.5%

Current Macroeconomic Trends

Recent data confirm the balanced development of key sectors and the continued high level of business activity. CERR’s Business Activity Index showed a significant increase in October of this year, rising by 34.2% compared to October 2024.

According to the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 7.6% in the first nine months of the year. Growth was driven by industry, services, agriculture, construction, and foreign trade, which increased by nearly one-quarter, with exports rising by one-third. Investment grew by around 15%. Remittances increased by 25% compared with last year.

Economic Growth Forecast for 2025

Given current macroeconomic indicators and based on CERR’s integrated model, Uzbekistan’s GDP growth is forecast at 7.5%. The forecast range is 7.3–7.7%.

Analysis shows that the main factors influencing the growth trajectory include business activity, the housing market, industrial output, and banking operations. Comparing model-based estimates with actual data from previous years confirms that this approach accurately reflects real macroeconomic trends.

CERR additionally analyzed behavioral indicators, including Google search trends. Between January and October of this year, interest increased in categories such as “motor vehicles” (by 3%), “business and industry” (5.9%), “shopping” (8.1%), and “finance” (9.5%).

A New Standard in Macroeconomic Analytics

The forecast is based on nowcasting models, enabling real-time assessment. This approach incorporates a wide range of data that are not captured in standard quarterly statistics.

The projection is built on an expanded information base that includes more than 30 key indicators across industry, services, construction, foreign trade, the financial sector, and consumer demand for the period 2017–2025.

Earlier, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms, together with the Swiss KOF Economic Institute, developed a real-time macroeconomic analysis model for Uzbekistan. The project was implemented under the MUNIS program with support from the World Bank and the Agency for Innovation Development.

The resulting toolkit has become a foundation for the regular monitoring of GDP dynamics and for improving the quality of economic policy decision-making.

International Assessments

According to the most recent updates released in September–October of this year, the International Monetary Fund expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 7.3% in 2025 — an upward revision of 1.4 percentage points. The World Bank’s forecast stands at 6.2%, and the Asian Development Bank’s at 6.6%.

The comparison of national and international assessments confirms the robustness of CERR’s forecast, which incorporates both structural and behavioral factors and relies on a modern macroeconomic monitoring system.

Jamshid Akhmatov, CERR

CERR Public Relations Sector
Tel.: (+998) 78 150-32-20 (417)