According to new forecasts, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), the growth of the Uzbek economy in 2023 will remain at the level of the Q3 2022. The previous forecast of the CERR, released in August of this year, predicted growth at the level of 5.5%.
The forecast for 2023 was prepared on the basis of modern forecasting tools recommended by the IMF.
In January-September 2023, there was a significant increase in activity in industry and the service sector compared to the same period of the previous year, as indicated by an increase in Google searches in the categories "Business and Industry" (by 17%), "Motor vehicles" (17%), "Purchases" (18%) and "Food and Beverages" (29%).
It should be noted that the CERR forecast for the first half of 2023 showed high accuracy, with a deviation of the expected GDP growth by only 0.05 percentage points compared to the actual data of the Statistics Agency.
According to the results of the first nine months of this year, positive dynamics was observed in the industry (growth by 5.7%), in the field of market services (12.1%) and foreign economic activity (export growth by 23.5%).
At the same time, the Business Activity Index in September this year increased by 7.3% compared to the previous month, due to an increase in transactions on bank accounts of household entities (an increase of 2.8%), the intensity of raw materials purchases on the commodity exchange (13.8%), the number of operating household entities (1.5%).
According to estimates, by the end of the year, the main factors of economic growth will be the state economic policy aimed at supporting economic sectors, sustainable foreign trade, as well as productivity growth in economic sectors as a result of structural reforms and increased investment. Positive trends for the economy also include higher world prices for precious metals and copper.
According to forecasts, the volume of final consumer spending and gross investment compared to the previous year will increase by 4.8% and 7.6%, respectively. The growth in the volume of export of goods and services compared to the previous year is estimated at 20.8%, import by 21.4%.
At the same time, there are risks of a decrease in the economic activity of the country's main trading partners and the volume of cross-border money transfers, which may lead to a slowdown in economic growth.
In general, taking into account the above-mentioned factors, the forecast economic growth corridor for 2023 is set at 5.4 - 5.6%.
For reference: The forecasts were made using two approaches: "Nowcasting", based on highly detailed streams of extensive data, and "Financial Programming and Policy" (FPP), which examines the main characteristics of macroeconomic sectors (real, fiscal, foreign economic and monetary) and explains their relationship with other sectors of the economy.
Elmukhammad Okboev, CERR
Jamshid Akhmatov, CERR
CERR Public Relations Service
Tel.: (+998) 78 150-32-20 (417)
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