CERR Macroeconomic Analysis For 9 Months: Results of January-September 2023

The macroeconomic overview is a regular publication of the CERR. It presents an operational cross-section of the macroeconomic situation in Uzbekistan, and estimates its development in the short term.

The publication analyzes such economic indicators as GDP, industry, investments, consumer spending, inflation, interest rates, lending, domestic and foreign trade, government budget revenues and expenditures, and cyclically adjusted fiscal balance.

The overview covers the state of economic development and monitoring of key trends, including issues of public policy in the monetary and fiscal spheres that shape short-term economic prospects.

The purpose of the overview is to assess the prospects for development in the field of economic policy in order to maintain macroeconomic stability and promote stable socio-economic development.

In January-September 2023, Uzbekistan's economy grew above its trends in the medium term and the growth rate was 5.8%. In the third quarter, trade turnover increased by 22.1% against the background of exchange rate adjustments and amounted to $44.7 billion.

According to the calculations of the CERR, in 2023, the annual economic growth in Uzbekistan is projected in the range of 5.4-5.6%. At the same time, the growth in consumer consumption and investment will amount to 4.8% and 7.6%, respectively.

The key findings of the CERR macroeconomic overview for January-September 2023 include the following estimates:

• In January-September 2023, Uzbekistan's economy grew by 5.8%. By the end of this year, the positive production gap is expected to remain;
• Services and industry have become the main drivers of economic development on the part of general demand: these sectors grew by 6.5% and 5.7%, respectively;
• As the trends of previous years show, if until 2021 the share of income tax receipts and income, as well as resource fees and income from real estate tax to GDP, has been steadily growing, in recent years the share of extra-budgetary funds and accounts and other income has been growing;
• It is estimated that in 2020-2023 there was a tendency for real and neutral interest rates to rise. As of September this year, the real interest rate was 4.4%, and the neutral interest rate was 3.9%;
• Against the background of a tightening global monetary environment, the central banks of the main trading partners of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey continue their policy of maintaining a tight monetary policy;
• By the beginning of October 2023, the total money supply increased by 12% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The share of the national currency in the money supply was 77%, and the share of deposits in foreign currency was 23%;
• According to the analysis, the share of consumer loans and car loans in the context of loans to the population remains high (44% and 40%).
• In January-September 2023, the volume of import of machinery and equipment amounted to $11.4 billion, chemical products – $4.2 billion, food – $3 billion, services – $1.8 billion. There were no significant changes in the share of these categories in import;
• According to the calculations of the CERR, the country's trade conditions continue to decline. In particular, this indicator deteriorated by 0.5% compared to 9 months last year, and since 2018 it has decreased by 11.2%;
• The dynamics of the real effective exchange rate of the sum is analyzed on the basis of the methodology of the Bank for International Settlements. The results show that the real exchange rate of the sum strengthened by 13.9% from January 2019 to September 2023.

CERR Macroeconomic Analysis For January-June 2023

CERR Macroeconomic Analysis For January-September

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