CERR also held a roundtable discussion on the theme “Toward Net-Zero: Uzbekistan's Macro GHG & Industrial Decarbonization”.
The event brought together representatives of IDDRI, the OECD SIPA project, international organizations, as well as national ministries and agencies.
The roundtable formed part of the CERR–IDDRI cooperation program within the framework of the OECD SIPA project. As part of this program, CERR conducted a comprehensive assessment of Uzbekistan’s carbon potential, applied modern evaluation models, and studied international practices.
Global emissions reached 53 billion tons in 2023, which is 15.6% higher than the 2010 level. In Central Asia, climate change reduces annual per capita GDP growth by 1–2 percentage points. Over the past 20 years, the average temperature in the region has risen by 1.5 degrees, while water levels in the Amu Darya have fallen by 30% and in the Syr Darya by 10%. The number of natural risks and climate-related events has increased 140-fold over the past decade, affecting more than 10 million people and causing cumulative damage of $10 billion.
According to World Bank forecasts, without adaptation measures Uzbekistan’s economy could shrink by 10% by 2050, which would significantly impact employment and household incomes.
National trends show progress towards a low-carbon economy. The main sources of emissions in Uzbekistan remain the energy sector (76%), agriculture (18%), industry (5%), and waste (1%). The largest contributors are methane emissions from oil and gas (35%), CO₂ from electricity and heat generation (21%), industry and construction (16%), livestock farming (15%), and the residential sector (13%).
The Government of Uzbekistan has declared ambitious targets for the period up to 2030. The country aims to reduce the carbon intensity of the economy by 35% compared to the 2010 level, halve GDP energy intensity, increase the share of renewables in the energy balance to 40%, and plant 200 million trees annually for five years. A key element is strengthening corporate responsibility: state-owned enterprises are transitioning to ESG and CSR reporting and introducing emissions monitoring systems.
The research results indicate that Uzbekistan has made significant progress in reducing carbon intensity and developing renewables, laying the foundation for a further shift to a low-carbon growth model. Experts note that by 2030, electricity demand in the country will reach 120 billion kWh, and that accelerated deployment of renewable energy will be critical to easing the load on the power system and curbing emissions growth.
Based on the analyses conducted, Uzbekistan’s plans to reduce carbon emissions in sectors such as energy, transport, construction, and manufacturing were examined. The recommendations included the most effective available technologies and methods that could accelerate this process. Such studies are among the few of their kind in the country, making this an entirely new area of analytical research for Uzbekistan.
CERR Public Relations Sector
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