The state of the business climate in June was assessed as positive - CERR survey

The monthly survey is conducted in two areas: a qualitative assessment of the current state of the business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their business for the next three months.

In June this year, the indicator of the business climate increased by 5 points and amounted to 58 points (on a scale from -100 to +100), which assesses the state of the business climate in the country as positive.

Dynamics of the business climate indicator

In the sectoral context, the indicator of the business climate in agriculture was 62 points, services - 59 points, in construction - 63 points and industry - 51 points.

In the regional context, relatively high indicators of the composite indicator of the business climate were noted in Namangan (81 points), Bukhara (74 points), Surkhandarya (71 points), Samarkand (70 points) and Kashkadarya (70 points) regions.

Relatively lower than the national average, the indicators of the business climate were recorded in the Tashkent region (32 points), Tashkent city (37 points), Andijan (40 points) region, the Republic of Karakalpakstan (48 points).

Positive changes in the composite indicator of the business climate are associated with changes in the following components of the indicator:

The indicator of the current state of business increased by 7 points and amounted to 45 points, which characterizes the positive sentiment of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of the business.

40% of entrepreneurs are confident in improving the state of their business over the past 3 months, an increase in comparison with May was 4%.

40% of entrepreneurs are confident in improving the state of their business over the past 3 months, an increase in comparison with May was 4%.

In turn, the growth of the indicator of the current state is associated with an improvement in the sentiment among entrepreneurs in the field of agriculture, which increased by 15 points in comparison with the month of this year and amounted to 51 points; in the industrial sector - 40 points (up 3 points); services - 43 points (up 6 points).

Relatively high indicators of the current state were noted in Namangan (72 points), Samarkand (61 points) and Bukhara (58 points) regions. Relatively low indicators among other regions were noted in the Tashkent region (21 points.) and in Tashkent city (25 points).

The indicator of expectations of business development increased by 2 points and amounted to 72 points, which reflects the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects of their business development for the next 3 months as optimistic.

76% of entrepreneurs estimated that their business prospects would improve. It is expected that demand for goods and services will improve in 66% of enterprises (70% in May) and the number of employees will increase in 69% (62% in May).

Among the regions, the highest indicators of the expectation indicator were recorded in Surkhandarya (91 points), Namangan (90 points) and Bukhara (90 points) regions. A relatively low indicator among other regions was noted in the Tashkent region (44 points), in the city of Tashkent (49 points) and in Andijan region (51 points).

In general, the relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that, according to the assessments of business entities, a positive trend in economic development will continue for the next 3 months.

The survey data indicate that the economic recovery is sustainable in the current year. Despite adverse natural events, which is due to the effectiveness of the reforms carried out over the past four years, ensured a business-friendly business climate and economic stability.

Feruzbek Davletov, Center for Economic Research and Reforms