CERR has released a forecast for the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan

CERR has released a forecast for the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan

The CERR has presented a preliminary estimate of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) for the Q1, 2023. The economy is expected to slow down slightly in the Q1. Uzbekistan's economic growth in the Q1 is usually lower due to seasonal factors.

Forecasts by the model based on the "nowcasting" approach have been used by the CERR since 2021 and allow revealing special aspects of GDP that cannot be identified in quarterly indicators.

During the Q4 of 2022, the trend of weekly GDP growth continued, which was observed in the Q3 of last year. The growth trend was mainly due to a significant increase in foreign trade and business activity in the service sector. In particular, the foreign trade turnover of goods and services increased by 18.6% throughout 2022.

During October and November last year, activity in industry, domestic trade and the service sector also increased significantly, as indicated by an increase in Google searches in the categories "Business and Industry" — by 15.7%, "Shopping" — by 17%, and "Recreation and Entertainment" — by 10%.

The projected weekly GDP growth of Uzbekistan in 2022 and in the 1st quarter of 2023.

According to the CERR, in August and October 2022, the growth of the Uzbek economy was projected at 5.81% and 5.77%, respectively. At the same time, the range of Uzbekistan's economic growth for 2022 was set at 5.67%-5.87%. In general, despite external and internal challenges last year, Uzbekistan's economy showed resilience.

This year, the economy of Uzbekistan will continue to develop. It is predicted that the annual growth of the economy in the Q1 of 2023 will be 5.47%. Some slowdown in the economy will be due to significant inflationary pressure and seasonal factors. The projected range of annual economic growth is set at 5.31%-5.62% for the Q1 of 2023.

For reference: the nowcasting method is based on high frequency big data. Based on the collection of about 250 weekly Google search results for 20 categories, combined with estimates of prices for individual products and fundamental variables of gross imports and inventories, a weekly GDP forecast is carried out.

Asror Nigmonov
CERR head of sector

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