Center for Economic Research and Reforms surveyed more than 1,000 enterprises throughout the country in order to find out how they assess the prospects for the development of their business.
Monthly information is conducted in two directions: a qualitative assessment of the current state of the business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their business for the next three months.
In August, the consolidated indicator of the business climate increased by 8 points and amounted to 63 points (on a scale from -100 to +100), which assesses the state of the business climate in the country as positive.
In the sectoral context, the indicator of the business climate in the field of agriculture increased by 6 points and amounted to 71 points, services showed an increase of 3 points, rising to 56 points, construction grew by 4 points, amounting to 73 points and the highest growth (by 16 points) was recorded in industry to 60 points.
The growth of the consolidated indicator of the business climate is associated with changes in the following components of the indicator:
Dynamics of the business climate indicator
The indicator of the current state of business in August amounted to 49 points (July-38 points), which characterizes the positive mood of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of business.
The share of respondents who noted the current state of their business as good was 44% (July - 41%). When it was asked how the state of business has changed over the past 3 months, 41% of entrepreneurs believe that it has improved (July - 39%), 45% - has not changed (July - 45%) and 14% noted a deterioration (July - 16%).
Demand for goods/services in August improved in 48% of enterprises (July - 47%), while the number of employees increased in 27% of enterprises (July - 25%).
The growth indicator is associated with changes among entrepreneurs in the field of industry - 44 points (July - 18 points), agriculture - 59 points (July - 48 points) and services - 44 points (July - 42 points).
The indicator on the prospects of entrepreneurs to develop their business over the next 3 months increased significantly and amounted to 77 points (in July - 73 points), which was assessed as optimistic forecasts. The growth of this indicator was influenced by the meeting of the President with entrepreneurs, which provided further measures to support business.
74% believe that the prospects of their business will improve (July - 76%). It is expected that the demand for goods and services will improve in 68% of enterprises (July - 67%), the number of employees will increase in 69% (July - 62%).
23% of entrepreneurs expect an increase in prices for goods/services in the next 3 months (July - 22%). 33% believe that prices "will not change" (July - 28%) and 5% - "decrease" (July - 5%). 39% of respondents "do not know" how prices for their goods/services will change in the near future (July – 45%).
The breakdown of the expectation indicator by industry in August showed the following changes: agriculture grew by 3 points and amounted to 85 points, industry also grew by 3 points and amounted to 76 points, the construction sector showed the largest growth (by 13 points) and amounted to 86 points, services grew by 5 points and amounted to 69 points.
In general, the relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that according to the estimates of business entities, the positive trend in the development of the economy will continue in the next 3 months.
The results of the survey confirm the moderate nature of the economic recovery, despite adverse effects of epidemiological situation. This is a result of the ongoing reforms, which ensure a favorable business climate and economic stability.
Feruzbek Davletov, CERR
*Detailed analysis and complete information about the study can be obtained upon request at the Center for Economic Research and Reforms. Tel.: (+998) 78 150-02-02