According to the agency's assessment, Jizzakh is one of Uzbekistan's rapidly developing regions, with economic growth exceeding the national average. The region accounts for 4% of the country's total population, while gross regional product per capita stands at approximately 70% of the national average.
Fitch Ratings assessed the region's financial position at 'aa', taking into account its debt-servicing capacity and budgetary performance.
In 2025, transfers from the central government accounted for 51% of the regional budget's operating revenue, while tax revenues represented 44%.
Under the agency's assessment scenario for 2026–2030:
Operating revenue is projected to increase by an average of 8% annually, supported by economic growth.
Operating expenditure is expected to grow by an average of 9.5% per year.
The budget's debt burden is projected to remain at approximately 20%.
The debt payback ratio could reach 8.1 years by 2030.
Fitch Ratings noted that the region's debt obligations remain relatively limited. However, the agency also highlighted the dependence of local budget revenues on central government decisions and the region's limited flexibility in independently managing expenditure.
Jizzakh Region's 'BB−' rating is in line with those assigned to Fergana Region and the city of Tashkent. The rating is also comparable to those of Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, and Konya in Türkiye.
Jizzakh's rating is higher than that of Balıkesir in Türkiye but lower than that of Aktobe Region in Kazakhstan.
According to the agency, a sustained improvement in debt-servicing indicators could support a rating upgrade. Conversely, an increase in the debt burden could put downward pressure on the rating.
Fitch Ratings also noted that its assessment of climate-related risks did not indicate a high level of exposure for Jizzakh Region.
Overall, the 'BB−' rating with a Stable Outlook reflects an international credit assessment of Jizzakh Region's financial capacity, ability to service debt obligations, and economic development prospects.
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