Beware of Central Economic Forecasts for 2026
The Project Syndicate reports that in statistical terms, the coming year will offer a multi-modal distribution of possibilities.
A plausible path of robust, AI-led growth sits in the middle, flanked by a productivity miracle on one side and a risk-laden, bond-market-led downside on the other. Investors and policymakers must prepare for all of these outcomes. Forecasting a central scenario for the US economy in 2026 appears to be a straightforward exercise. But the probability that this baseline forecast... ...
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