In the first half of 2026, the leather and footwear industry developed amid mixed external market conditions and intensifying competition in the global market.
Under these conditions, the key factor in the industry’s resilience is the ability of producers to increase output of finished products, deepen raw material processing, and expand export niches. This is particularly relevant for Central Asian countries given their own raw material base and development potential.
The material covers four Central Asian countries, as data for Turkmenistan are not available from open sources.
In the first half of 2026, the production of leather, leather products, and footwear in Uzbekistan demonstrated strong growth. Output reached 2.8 trillion sums ($227 million), increasing by 16.9% compared with the same period of 2025. For comparison, the growth rate a year earlier stood at 4.8%.
At the same time, it should be noted that growth slowed over the course of the half-year. Production growth reached 39.4% in January–April and 44.3% in January–May.
Foreign trade dynamics were less clear-cut. Exports of leather and footwear products (HS groups 41–43 and 64) amounted to $31.5 million in January–June 2026, down 6.1%. At the same time, footwear exports alone posted strong growth, increasing 1.7-fold to $12.4 million, compared with $7.4 million in the first half of 2025.
As a result, footwear’s share in total exports of leather and footwear products increased from 22% to 39%. Thus, despite the decline in the industry’s overall exports, their structure improved in favor of finished products with a higher degree of processing.
At the same time, the gap between production growth and the 6.1% decline in exports suggests that the expansion in output was largely oriented toward the domestic market. This is also supported by import statistics, which show that imports of leather and footwear products decreased by 3% to $33 million.
The highest production growth in the region in the first half of 2026 was recorded in Kazakhstan. Output of leather, leather products, and footwear increased by 30.1%. For comparison, production declined by 11.4% in the first half of 2025. Kazakhstan therefore moved from contraction to a strong recovery in production.
External demand, however, grew much more slowly. In January–May, exports of leather and footwear products increased by only 1.3% to $26 million. Footwear exports rose by 10.6% to $17 million, accounting for around two-thirds of total exports.
Kazakhstan’s imports of leather and footwear products declined by 33% in the first five months of 2026 to $154 million, including a 25% decline in footwear imports to $100 million.
In Kyrgyzstan, the situation was considerably weaker. Production declined by 12.4% in the first half of the year. The contraction in production was accompanied by a decline in exports. In January–May, exports fell by 25.8% to $8.7 million. Footwear exports alone almost halved, falling by 50.2% to $3.7 million.
Imports of leather and footwear products also dropped sharply compared with the previous year, falling by 65% to $35 million. Such significant changes may be related to shifts in transit and re-export flows passing through Kyrgyzstan.
Tajikistan also recorded negative production dynamics. In January–June, production declined by 28.1% compared with the same period of the previous year.
Overall, the situation across the region remains uneven. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are increasing output of leather and footwear products, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are experiencing production declines. At the same time, Uzbekistan stands out for the strongest growth in exports of finished footwear.
In the first half of 2026, the global leather and footwear industry developed amid intense competition, subdued demand in some markets, and differing trends among the largest producing countries.
In China, the world’s largest producer and exporter of footwear, foreign shipments declined. Exports of leather and footwear products fell by 5.2% to $40 billion, while footwear exports declined by 7.3% to $22 billion.
Vietnam, by contrast, continued to expand production. In January–June, output of leather and footwear products increased by approximately 4%.
In Türkiye, the leather and footwear industry continued to face difficulties. In May, production in the relevant industry was approximately 6% below the level recorded in May 2025. Exports of leather and footwear products declined by 8% in January–June to $829 million. Footwear exports fell even more sharply, by 13.2% to $462 million.
In Russia, following weak performance in the previous year, production gradually recovered in the first half of 2026. Leather and footwear output remained broadly at the previous year’s level over the six-month period, increasing by 0.4%, while the dynamics improved noticeably by June.
Thus, among the major producers, Vietnam maintained the most stable positive production dynamics during the period under review, while China and Türkiye experienced declines in exports. In addition, China reduced its exports to Central Asia by 20% to $1.5 billion, while Türkiye also cut its shipments to Central Asia by 4% to $50 million.
The weakening performance of the largest exporters theoretically creates additional opportunities for Central Asian producers in the regional market. However, the gap in scale remains substantial.
In the first half of the year, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan recorded the strongest production performance in the region. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, by contrast, experienced declines. Uzbekistan also stands out for its strong growth in footwear exports, creating opportunities to strengthen its position as a center of the leather and footwear industry in Central Asia.
The results of the first half of 2026 show that the further development of the leather and footwear industry in Uzbekistan and the wider region will largely depend on the ability to move from the production of raw materials and intermediate goods toward the development of complete value chains and increased production of competitive finished footwear.
Overall, for Central Asian countries with their own livestock and raw material base, the consistent development of leather processing and footwear manufacturing can help create integrated production chains within the region, reduce dependence on imports of finished products, and improve the competitiveness of domestic producers in external markets.
Ruslan Abaturov, CERR
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