Industrial Development in Central Asian Countries in the First Half of 2026

Against this backdrop, a common positive trend in the first half of 2026 was growth in industrial production across all countries of the region (data for Turkmenistan are not publicly available; therefore, the analysis covers four Central Asian countries).

Country Trends in Industrial Development

Industrial production in Kazakhstan increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while the value of output reached $71 billion.

The mining industry was a constraining factor, with output declining by 4%, including an 8.3% decrease in oil and gas production. Given that the extractive sector accounts for around 46% of total industrial output, this trend significantly slowed the country’s overall industrial growth.

Manufacturing, by contrast, expanded by 9.8%, with output reaching $33 billion, slightly exceeding the mining sector in value terms. Thus, manufacturing became the main source of positive industrial growth.

At the industry level, the fastest growth was recorded in textiles, which increased 2.5-fold, pharmaceuticals by 43.6%, fabricated metal products by 39.9%, repair and installation of machinery and equipment by 34.7%, and automotive manufacturing by 31.6%. Overall machinery manufacturing grew by 23.1% and accounted for 8.1% of industrial output.

At the same time, one of the largest industries — basic metals — contracted by 2.7%, while petroleum refining declined by 0.8%. Against this backdrop, the structural shift remains uneven: growth in higher value-added production is accompanied by weak performance in the largest extractive and primary processing industries.

Industrial growth was supported by investment, which increased by 16.9%.

Industrial output in Kyrgyzstan increased by 12.7% to $5.2 billion. Mining grew by 12.8%, mainly due to increased extraction of metal ores and other minerals. Manufacturing expanded by 15.1% and accounted for 79.1% of total industrial output.

The country’s largest industrial sector — primary metallurgy, accounting for 48.7% of output — grew by 12.2%, following a 2.2% decline a year earlier.

At the same time, a number of smaller industries expanded rapidly: chemicals grew almost threefold, paper and paperboard production 2.2-fold, petroleum refining by 70%, printing by 66%, pharmaceuticals by 83%, construction materials by 33%, and transport equipment manufacturing by 41%. This indicates a gradual broadening of the range of growing industries, although their contribution to total output remains significantly lower than that of metallurgy.

Weak areas included electricity generation, where output declined by 2.6%, and light industry, which contracted by 12.2%. Textile production fell by 27.6%, while clothing production decreased by 2.4%.

Tajikistan recorded the highest industrial growth among the countries reviewed, at 14.1%, with output valued at around $3.6 billion. However, compared with the first half of 2025, when growth reached 24%, the pace slowed.

Manufacturing increased by 26% and accounted for 52% of industrial output, compared with 47% in the first half of 2025. Electricity, gas supply and air conditioning grew by 16.8%, including a 17.1% increase in electricity generation, while the energy sector’s share of industrial output rose to 21%, from 19% in the first half of 2025.

Within manufacturing, particularly strong growth was recorded in wood processing, up 73%, chemicals by 56%, paper and paperboard by 46%, furniture and other manufacturing by 43%, food production by 25%, machinery manufacturing by 27%, and construction materials by 23%. This indicates a relatively broad-based pattern of industrial growth.

At the same time, mining declined by 6.7%, mainly due to a 7.4% decrease in metal ore extraction and a 41.9% decline in oil and gas production.

Industrial production in Uzbekistan grew at an accelerated pace of 8%, compared with 6.6% in the first half of 2025, while the value of output reached $53 billion.

Manufacturing increased by 8.8%, compared with 7.1% in the first half of 2025, while its share of total industrial output rose from 85% to 86%. The mining sector grew by only 2.1%. Among other sectors, electricity, gas supply and air conditioning increased by 7.9%, compared with 3.1% a year earlier, while water supply, waste collection and disposal grew by 15.9%, compared with 9.7%.

At the industry level, the highest growth rates were recorded in other machinery and equipment manufacturing, which increased 1.6-fold, wood processing by 48%, computers and electronic equipment by 37%, furniture by 31%, pharmaceuticals by 22%, and automotive manufacturing by 20%. Food production also increased by 12%, textiles by 10.1%, and construction materials by 12%.

At the same time, growth remained relatively low in the country’s largest industrial sector — basic metals, which accounts for 29% of industrial output — at only 1.3%.

Region-wide Industrial Development Trends

In all four countries reviewed, manufacturing grew faster than total industrial production: 9.8% versus 3.5% in Kazakhstan, 15.1% versus 12.7% in Kyrgyzstan, 26% versus 14.1% in Tajikistan, and 8.8% versus 8% in Uzbekistan. This shift was particularly pronounced in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, where the mining sector contracted while overall industrial growth remained positive.

Accelerated growth was also observed in machinery manufacturing and selected technology-intensive industries. Automotive production increased in all four countries: by 31.6% in Kazakhstan, 40.4% in Kyrgyzstan, 34.2% in Tajikistan and 19.6% in Uzbekistan.

At the same time, the countries continue to show a high degree of dependence on metallurgy and resource-based industries. Metallurgy accounted for almost half of industrial output in Kyrgyzstan, while metal production represented 28.7% of industrial output in Uzbekistan and 20.4% in Kazakhstan. In Tajikistan, metallurgy, ore extraction and electricity generation continued to play a significant role.

Another notable trend in 2026 was the expansion of industries linked to domestic demand and the investment cycle. Food production, construction materials, chemicals, rubber and plastics, fabricated metal products, automotive manufacturing and furniture production grew across all four countries.

The investment base for industrial development remained substantial, although it differed in scale and structure. Industry accounted for 47% of total investment in Uzbekistan, 41% in Kazakhstan, 35% in Tajikistan and 17% in Kyrgyzstan. These investments provide a foundation for further growth, although their effectiveness will depend on the commissioning of new capacities, localization of intermediate production and access to external markets.

Conclusion and Key Findings

The results of the first half of 2026 show that industry in Central Asia continued to expand, with an increasing share of the positive momentum coming from manufacturing.

The key structural outcome of the period was the growth of higher value-added industries, including machinery manufacturing, automotive production, electronics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, fabricated metal products and construction materials.

However, a significant share of industrial output remains concentrated in mining, metallurgy and energy, while the high growth rates of some emerging segments largely reflect a low base. Therefore, the sustainability of industrial expansion will depend not only on the commissioning of new production capacities, but also on deeper inter-industry linkages, the development of regional supply chains, productivity growth and the expansion of non-resource exports.

In the near term, countries in the region should focus on processing domestic raw materials into higher value-added products, strengthening industrial cooperation and addressing infrastructure constraints, particularly in energy, transport and access to industrial financing. These factors will be critical for transforming the current growth momentum into sustainable structural modernization of Central Asia’s industrial sector.

Ruslan Abaturov, CERR