Mutual Trade among Central Asian Countries in the First Half of 2026

All countries in the region contributed to the growth. Kazakhstan recorded the highest growth in intra-regional exports, up 28.5% to $3.9 billion (58% of total mutual exports). Uzbekistan’s exports increased by 27.2% to $1.6 billion (23.9%). This was followed by Turkmenistan, up 19.2% to $655 million (9.8%), and Tajikistan, up 15.8% to $171 million (2.6%). Kyrgyzstan’s exports lagged significantly behind the regional trend, increasing by only 4.5% to $384 million (5.7%).

The largest absolute increases came from Kazakhstan (+$862 million, or 64% of the total increase) and Uzbekistan (+$341 million, or 25% of the increase), which together form the region’s largest trade axis. According to data from both sides, bilateral trade turnover amounted to $2.8 billion.

Other significant trade links include Kazakhstan’s trade with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as Uzbekistan’s trade with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. By contrast, trade among Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan remains relatively limited, indicating weak diversification of direct trade links among the region’s smaller economies.

At the same time, one of the key trends this year has been the continued multiple increase in mutual trade between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan amid improving bilateral relations, as reflected in the statistics of both countries.

Overall, the nature of countries’ participation in mutual trade remains uneven. Kazakhstan is the region’s largest net exporter, with its exports to Central Asian countries exceeding imports by more than three times. Turkmenistan also remains predominantly a supplier. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan have trade deficits with the region.

Intra-regional trade is measured as the sum of each country’s exports to other Central Asian states. This approach avoids double counting, since the same transaction is recorded as an export by one country and an import by another. For Turkmenistan, mirror data from the national statistics of Central Asian countries were used.

Country Trends in Trade with the Region

In January–June 2026, Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with Central Asian countries reached $5.1 billion, increasing by 28.1%. Exports rose by 28.5% to $3.9 billion, while imports increased by 26.5% to $1.2 billion. The trade surplus expanded by 29% to $2.7 billion.

Central Asia accounted for 7.1% of Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade, including 9.6% of exports and 3.9% of imports. The region is therefore more important to Kazakhstan as an export market than as a source of imports.

Uzbekistan remains Kazakhstan’s main regional trading partner, accounting for 55% of Kazakhstan’s trade with Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan accounted for 25%, Tajikistan for 14.5%, and Turkmenistan for 5.4%.

Uzbekistan’s trade with Central Asian countries grew at the fastest pace, increasing by 29.6% to $4.4 billion. Exports rose by 27.2% to $1.6 billion, while imports increased by 31.1% to $2.8 billion. The trade deficit widened by 36.5% to $1.3 billion. Uzbekistan’s import deficit is concentrated primarily in trade with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, while trade with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan generated a surplus.

Central Asia accounted for 10.8% of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade, including 10.1% of exports and 11.3% of imports. Similar shares in exports and imports indicate a relatively balanced role of Central Asia in the country’s foreign trade geography.

Kazakhstan accounted for 62.7% of Uzbekistan’s trade with the region, Kyrgyzstan for 14.1%, Turkmenistan for 13.5%, and Tajikistan for 9.8%. At the same time, the latter three directions recorded faster growth, indicating a gradual diversification of Uzbekistan’s regional trade links.

Kyrgyzstan remains the country whose national exports are most dependent on Central Asian markets. Trade turnover with the region reached $1.5 billion, increasing by 3.2%. Imports amounted to $1.2 billion (+2.8%), while exports reached $384 million (+4.5%). The trade deficit remained broadly unchanged from the previous year at $774 million.

Central Asia accounted for 19.5% of Kyrgyzstan’s total foreign trade, including 16.9% of imports and 35.9% of exports. This is the highest share of the region in exports among Central Asian countries. Despite relatively modest growth, this indicates the region’s role as a key and stabilizing market for Kyrgyz goods amid an overall decline in the country’s exports.

Kyrgyzstan’s regional trade is concentrated mainly in two directions: Kazakhstan, which accounts for 60% of its trade with the region, and Uzbekistan, with 36%. Tajikistan accounted for 2.1% in the first half of the year, and Turkmenistan for 1.7%.

Tajikistan increased its trade turnover with Central Asian countries by 29% to $1.2 billion. Imports amounted to $984 million, while exports reached $171 million. The trade deficit widened by 35% to $813 million.

The region accounted for 16.9% of Tajikistan’s foreign trade, including 18.8% of imports and 10.8% of exports, confirming that neighboring countries play a greater role as a source of goods than as an export market.

Kazakhstan remains Tajikistan’s dominant regional partner, accounting for 66.7% of its trade with Central Asia. Uzbekistan accounts for 29.2%, Kyrgyzstan for 2.5%, and Turkmenistan for 1.6%. Thus, despite strong overall growth, Tajikistan’s export base remains narrow and its trade flows are heavily concentrated on Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

According to mirror data, Turkmenistan exported $655 million worth of goods to Central Asian countries, up 19.2% year-on-year. Its main destinations are Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, while trade with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remains limited.

Overall, Central Asia maintained a positive trajectory in mutual trade in the first half of 2026. The results reflect expanding regional demand, improved dialogue, the recovery of certain cross-border trade links, and stronger transport and logistics connectivity.

At the same time, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan account for more than 80% of mutual exports, while nearly 90% of the total increase came from these two countries. Direct trade among Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan remains limited, while significant trade imbalances persist. This points to low diversification of intra-regional trade flows and limited mutual economic and industrial integration.

Against this backdrop, particular importance should be attached to shifting from predominantly bilateral trade flows toward multilateral production linkages, diversifying the structure of trade, expanding non-resource exports, and developing cross-border production chains.

Ruslan Abaturov, CERR