Development of the economy of Uzbekistan in 2023

Positive trends were also observed in the main trading partner countries, despite the continuation of geopolitical tensions. In Kyrgyzstan, despite the slowdown compared to last year, economic growth remained high – 6.2%. In Kazakhstan, GDP growth is expected to be about 5%. In China, according to the results of last year, the economy grew by 5.2% According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Russian economy grew by 3.3% in 11 months of 2023, it is expected that by the end of the year growth will be about 4%.

A slowdown in price growth was noted in Uzbekistan during the year. At the end of the year, the consumer price index amounted to 8.77% (for comparison in 2022 – 12.25%). For comparison: in Kazakhstan, by the end of last year, inflation was 9.8%, in Russia – 7.4%. In Uzbekistan, prices for food products increased by 9.7% over the year, for non-food products – 7.7%, and services – 8.7%.

In 2023, investment activity increased sharply – an increase of 22.1% compared to 0.2% in 2022. The increase was achieved due to the growth of non-centralized investments by 26%. In particular, foreign direct investment and loans increased by 58.9% (FDI almost doubled), investments due to loans from commercial banks and borrowed funds increased by 17.9%, at the expense of the population – 8.9%. However, there is a decrease in investment by enterprises of their own funds by 2.7%.

Centralized investments decreased by 0.7% in 2023. In particular, the decrease in investments from the budget amounted to 11.4%. At the same time, the volume of foreign investments and loans attracted under the government's guarantee increased by 30%.

At the end of the year, the share of centralized investments in the total volume of investments in fixed assets continued to decline – from 15.7% in 2022 to 12.7%. The share of non-centralized investments increased from 84.3% to 87.3%, respectively.

There was an increase in output in all sectors of the economy.

Agriculture grew by 4.1% (3.6% in 2022). The growth of forestry also accelerated to 2.7% (1.7%) and fishing – 7.4% (6.4%).

The growth rate of industrial production accelerated, reaching 6% (5.3% in 2022). By sector: mining industry grew by 1% (in 2022 – 1.9%), manufacturing – 6.7% (5.4%), electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning sector – 9.7% (13.5%), water supply, sewerage, waste collection and disposal – 1% (in 2022 decline by 5.3%).

Meanwhile, in 2023, the growth of consumer goods production slowed to 7.3% (in 2022 – 20.7%).

The construction sector grew by 6.4% at the end of the year, which is almost the same as last year – 6.6%.

The volume of market services in 2023 increased by 13.7%, while in 2022 it was 16.3%. Growth is observed in all sectors. The highest growth rates were demonstrated by communications and information services – an increase of 24.6%, education – 22.8%, financial services – 20.6%, real estate services – 13.3%, accommodation and food – 12.6%, healthcare – 11.6%, trade – 10.2%. Retail turnover increased by 9.1%.

The volume of services rendered in the field of transport increased by 8%. At the end of the year, the growth rate of passenger turnover slowed to 4.2%, whereas in 2022 it was 6.9%. At the same time, the dynamics of cargo turnover accelerated to 1.8% (in 2022 – 0.9%).

Foreign trade continued to grow at double-digit rates. In 2023, foreign trade turnover increased by 23.9% and amounted to $62.6 billion. Export increased by 23.8% to $24.4 billion, import by 24% to $38.1 billion.

The increase in export is due to an increase in gold supplies abroad by almost 2 times, machinery and transport equipment by 34%, services by 16%, food by 9%, finished goods by 8%.

At the same time, in 2023, Uzbekistan increased imports of machinery and transport equipment by 54%, fuel and energy products by 47%, finished products by 12%, chemical products by 11%

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In general, in 2023, despite internal and external challenges, the economy of Uzbekistan demonstrated stability and high growth rates. Last year, we managed to return double-digit dynamics of investment activity, slow down price growth, and production increased in all sectors of the economy.

Uzbekistan's economy is expected to continue its positive dynamics in 2024. According to the forecast, the GDP growth rate will be 5.6-5.8%.

Ruslan Abaturov, CERR