The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of its analysis of Uzbekistan’s business climate based on monthly surveys of entrepreneurs across the country.
Based on the data obtained, a composite business climate indicator was formed, reflecting assessments of the current state of business and expectations for the next three months.
In May, the composite Business Climate Index stood at 57 points, which was 4 points lower than in the corresponding period of the previous year. Despite the decline, the indicator remained in positive territory. Values above 50 points indicate the prevalence of optimistic assessments within the business environment.
According to the survey results, the Current Business Conditions Index amounted to 46 points, reflecting a more restrained assessment of the current situation by entrepreneurs, while the Expectations Index for the next three months reached 67 points and corresponds to a high level of business optimism.
The survey results indicate positive dynamics in key business activity indicators. The condition of their business over the past three months was assessed as “good” by 39% of entrepreneurs, compared to 37% in May 2025, indicating a moderate improvement in current assessments compared to the same period last year.
An increase in demand for goods and services over the past three months was reported by 37% of respondents, while 23% of entrepreneurs noted an increase in the number of employees, indicating sustained market activity amid moderate employment growth.
By sector, business climate assessments improved in agriculture and construction, while declines were recorded in industry and the services sector.
In agriculture, the composite Business Climate Index reached 70 points, which is 12 points higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. Over the year, both current assessments and entrepreneurs’ expectations for the next three months improved.
The positive dynamics were accompanied by improvements in key business activity indicators. An improvement in conditions over the past three months was reported by 47% of entrepreneurs, 49% of respondents assessed the current situation as “good,” and 28% reported an increase in employment.
In construction, the composite Business Climate Index reached 69 points, which is 12 points higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The sector also recorded improvements in both current assessments and business expectations for the next three months.
Positive sentiment remained strong across the main business activity indicators in construction. Over the past three months, the situation improved for nearly half of construction companies (47%), employment increased at more than four out of ten enterprises (42%), and growth in demand for products and services was reported by every second company in the sector (51%).
Despite a decline compared to the previous year, the composite Business Climate Index in industry stood at 46 points, remaining within a moderately restrained range. The moderate level of the index reflects more cautious assessments of the current situation among industrial enterprises.
Business activity indicators also point to restrained current activity in the industrial sector. Thus, 34% of industrial enterprises assessed the condition of their business as “good.” At the same time, three out of five enterprises (61%) expect an increase in employment over the next three months.
In the services sector, the composite Business Climate Index amounted to 56 points, remaining in positive territory despite some decline compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The changes were mainly driven by a revision of short-term expectations, which remain positive (61 points) but are less pronounced than a year earlier.
Business activity indicators in the services sector continue to show positive dynamics. At the same time, 74% of companies expressed optimism regarding development prospects over the next three months, while 38% of service sector enterprises reported improvements in current business conditions during the past three months.
Survey results indicate a slight increase in the number of entrepreneurs facing barriers in their business activities. The share of respondents reporting no obstacles declined from 60% to 57% in April of the current year.
The lowest level of obstacles to doing business was observed in the services sector and agriculture, where 59% and 58% of enterprises respectively reported no barriers. In construction, this figure stood at 55%, while in industry it was 52%.
At the same time, over the month the share of companies citing tax-related constraints and other financial difficulties decreased, while the share of enterprises pointing to issues related to banking services, access to credit, interest rates, and insufficient demand increased moderately.
Across sectors, the structure of barriers has distinct characteristics.
In agriculture, barriers related primarily to access to credit became more pronounced, while issues concerning water supply remain relevant. In industry and construction, the main burden continues to be associated with tax administration and certain financial difficulties, whereas in the services sector, alongside tax-related issues, the demand factor has become more significant.
Overall, the structure of barriers remains relatively moderate, and the majority of enterprises continue to operate without significant constraints despite certain obstacles. At the same time, the current situation points to the existence of potential for further sustainable development of business activity across most sectors of the economy.
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