Uzbekistan Demonstrates Positive Dynamics in the Business Climate Across Key Sectors of the Economy

Business Climate Analysis

In August, the composite business climate indicator increased by 2 points compared to the same period last year, reaching 55. The improvement was primarily driven by a rise in current activity: the current business climate index rose to 49 points (+10 year-on-year).

The current business conditions index reflects entrepreneurs’ perception of the actual situation and business environment, including sales, employment, demand, access to resources, and operational stability.

At the same time, the business expectations index adjusted from 67 to 62 points, but remained at a relatively high level, signaling entrepreneurs’ confidence in the future.

Dynamics of Uzbekistan's business climate

Survey results confirm a steady positive trend in Uzbekistan. The share of respondents rating the current state of their business as “good” increased to 45%, compared to 41% in August last year. Moreover, 39% reported business improvement over the past three months, while 41% noted rising demand.

Forecast expectations also remain high: 69% of respondents believe their business will continue to grow in the next three months, 62% expect further demand growth, and 53% anticipate an increase in employment.

Sectoral Analysis

In August, Uzbekistan’s agricultural business climate strengthened, with rising confidence among entrepreneurs. The index increased by 7 points month-on-month to 57, standing 1 point higher than last year.

Half of agricultural enterprises assessed their business situation as “good,” which is 10 percentage points higher year-on-year. In addition, 42% reported improvements over the past three months. Expectations rose to 68 points, indicating optimism about future prospects.

In industry, production activity picked up, with the current conditions index improving by 3 points to 41. However, the composite index declined by 2 points to 48. Nearly half of industrial entrepreneurs rated the situation as satisfactory. Notably, 28% reported workforce expansion, pointing to rising employment, while 70% expressed confidence in further improvements.

In the services sector, the business climate index rose to 57 points, 5 points higher than last year. Most significantly, the current conditions index jumped by 16 points to 52. Almost half of respondents (47%) rated their business as “good,” and 39% noted improvements in the past three months. At the same time, about a quarter (26%) expect no major changes in the near term.

In construction, the business climate improved by 5 points compared to last year, reaching 61. Current conditions increased significantly to 60, up 15 points. Despite this positive momentum, the expectations index slightly declined to 62. According to the survey, 37% of entrepreneurs reported improvements in the past three months (+8 points year-on-year). Even more telling, 69% expect further improvements in the coming months, compared to 61% last year.

Conclusions

The analysis confirms that favorable conditions are emerging in Uzbekistan for sustainable entrepreneurship development. Positive employment expectations, expanding domestic demand, and strengthening in key sectors (agriculture, industry, services, and construction) form the basis for further growth. Despite minor adjustments in expectations, businesses remain confident about the future, sending an important signal to investors and reinforcing economic stability.

The Uzbekistan Business Climate Index is calculated by CERR based on surveys of more than 1,000 enterprises across various sectors. The index is constructed using the methodology of the IFO Institute (Germany). In the survey, business leaders assess current and expected changes in the business environment based on dynamics of production, demand, and other factors.

Zokhidjon Gaipov
Sector for the Study of Competitiveness of Economic Sectors and Investment Activity