The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has presented the results of its business climate survey for September of the current year. Based on the survey, the Business Climate Index was compiled to reflect the current state of business and expectations for the near future.
Since 2023, CERR has been updating the dynamics of Uzbekistan’s business climate on the Trading Economics.
In September, the composite business climate indicator rose by 2 points compared to the same period last year, reaching 57 points. The increase was mainly driven by the “current business conditions” component, which grew to 52 points (+5 y/y), reflecting stronger real activity.
This indicator measures entrepreneurs’ perception of the current business environment, including sales, employment, demand, access to resources, and other operational factors.
At the same time, the business expectations index remains relatively high at 62 points, indicating strong confidence among entrepreneurs in future prospects.
Dynamics of Uzbekistan’s Business Climate
According to the survey, 46% of entrepreneurs in Uzbekistan assess the current state of their business as “good,” 39% report improvements over the past three months, and 47% note an increase in demand.
Expectations remain optimistic: 68% expect further improvement in business conditions in the next three months, 62% foresee growing demand, and 52% anticipate an expansion in employment.
In September, the business climate in agriculture improved by 3 points year-on-year, reaching 66 points.
Among agricultural producers, 45% assess the current state of business as “good,” 42% report improvements over the past three months, and 44% expect price stability to persist.
In industry, moderate revival of real activity is observed: the current conditions index rose by 2 points to 43, while the composite business climate index declined by 5 points to 43, reflecting more cautious expectations.
According to the survey, 47% of industrial enterprises assess their current state as satisfactory, 43% report improvement over the past three months, and 51% note an increase in demand.
In the services sector, the business climate index improved by 11 points year-on-year, reaching 57 points.
Among service providers, 46% assess their current business situation as “good,” 37% report improvement over the past three months, while 22% expect no significant change in the next quarter.
In the construction sector, a significant improvement in the business climate was observed. The composite index reached 63 points, up 21 points from last year. The current conditions index rose to 64 (+18), and the expectations index to 61 (+24). According to the survey, 44% of construction companies reported improvements over the past three months, while 68% expect further positive changes in the next quarter.
CERR’s September survey indicates a near-term increase in business activity. Sustained demand and positive expectations continue to support output growth amid overall price stability.
The Uzbekistan Business Climate Index is calculated by CERR based on surveys of more than 1,000 enterprises across various industries. The indicator is constructed using the methodology of the IFO Institute (Germany). During the survey, business leaders assess current and expected changes in the business environment based on production dynamics, demand, and other factors.
Zokhidjon Gaipov
Sector for the Study of Competitiveness
of Economic Sectors and Investment Activity
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