CERR Assesses the Impact of Higher Education Expansion on Equality of Opportunity

The study explores whether the rapid expansion of higher education in Uzbekistan has translated into more equal educational opportunities for young people across different social groups and regions.

The main finding is that while the substantial increase in the number of universities and students has significantly broadened overall access to higher education, it has not automatically reduced disparities associated with family background, household income and place of residence.

Between the 2019/20 and 2024/25 academic years, the number of higher education institutions in Uzbekistan increased from 119 to 222. During the same period, total student enrollment grew from approximately 441,000 to more than 1.4 million. Nationwide, the number of university students per 1,000 young people aged 20–24 more than doubled, increasing from 73 to 180.

However, this expansion has not been geographically uniform. Outside the city of Tashkent, no region has yet reached the level of higher education participation that the capital had already achieved in the 2020/21 academic year.

According to the CERR expert, expanding university capacity alone does not guarantee equal opportunities. Actual access to higher education depends not only on the availability of universities but also on the quality of secondary education, applicants' awareness of admission opportunities, preparedness for entrance examinations, transport accessibility, tuition costs, and the expenses associated with relocation and accommodation.

The study demonstrates that family background remains closely associated with educational attainment.

According to data from the three waves of the Life in Transition Survey (LiTS), 87% of respondents whose parents had obtained higher education also earned a university degree in 2022–2023.

Background: The Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) is an international household survey conducted jointly by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Bank. It assesses how economic and social transformations affect household welfare, education, employment and opportunities. The survey was conducted in 2006, 2010, 2016 and 2022–2023.

Among respondents whose parents had completed secondary education, educational outcomes were divided between maintaining the same educational level and progressing to higher education.

The measure of educational persistence—which reflects the degree to which children's educational attainment depends on their parents' educational background—increased between 2010 and 2016 and remained high in 2022–2023.

Even after controlling for region of residence, gender, age, and urban or rural location, parental education remains the strongest factor associated with educational achievement.

Across all three survey waves, urban residents demonstrated higher upward educational mobility than those living in rural areas.

According to the CERR expert, simply increasing the number of university places is insufficient to eliminate existing inequalities. Opportunities to enter higher education are shaped long before students submit their applications.

Young people from better-off families are more likely to benefit from stronger school preparation, access to private tutoring, better information about admission procedures and study programmes, as well as greater financial capacity to cover examination preparation, transportation, relocation, tuition fees and living expenses.

A family's financial resources therefore play a decisive role in determining who is able to benefit from the expansion of higher education.

In regions where the number of higher education institutions has grown most rapidly, 26% of households receiving remittances allocate part of those funds to education. In regions with slower expansion, the corresponding figure is 16%.

Approximately 63% of households report education-related expenditures, while 14% pay for private tutoring.

The costs affecting access to higher education extend beyond tuition fees. They also include internet access, digital devices, entrance examination preparation, travel to examination centres, application expenses, relocation to another city, rental housing and accommodation outside university dormitories.

The study concludes that new universities and additional study places deliver the greatest benefits only when students have adequate academic preparation, sufficient information and appropriate financial support.

Based on the analysis, the CERR expert proposes three priority directions for the next stage of higher education reforms.

First, support should begin before university admission. By the time students submit their applications, family background has already influenced their academic preparation, awareness and confidence.

The study recommends focusing support on students in Grades 9 and 11, when they make critical decisions regarding their educational pathways.

Targeted preparatory programmes, subsidised entrance examination courses, diagnostic testing and additional academic support could be introduced in rural areas and schools with traditionally low university admission rates.

Universities are also encouraged to establish mentoring programmes jointly with schools by engaging students and faculty members to support prospective applicants who may become the first members of their families to enter higher education.

Second, the expansion of higher education should be assessed not only by the number of places created, but by who enrolls, continues their studies and ultimately graduates.

New universities and branch campuses should not be evaluated solely on enrollment capacity. Equal attention should be given to student outcomes throughout the entire educational pathway—from admission to graduation.

Universities in rapidly expanding regions should work directly with schools to identify academically capable students whose opportunities are constrained by financial limitations or insufficient access to information.

For students experiencing financial hardship, the study recommends expanding targeted scholarships, access to student accommodation, transport assistance and preparatory programmes.

Student retention beyond the first year should become a mandatory performance indicator rather than remaining only an internal institutional statistic.

Third, Uzbekistan should publish annual indicators measuring equality of opportunity in higher education.

Currently, the country does not have a unified public system that regularly assesses whether higher education is becoming more equally accessible.

As a first step, annual publication of enrollment and graduation indicators disaggregated by region and gender should be introduced using administrative data.

Over time, these indicators should be expanded to include participation in entrance examinations, first-year retention rates, urban–rural disparities and the socio-economic characteristics of households.

As a practical solution, the study proposes establishing an Annual Higher Education Equality of Opportunity Monitoring Dashboard.

Initially, it should include data on admissions, first-year student retention, graduation rates and scholarship coverage, disaggregated by region, gender and place of residence.

According to the expert, over the next five years the success of higher education reforms should be measured by an increase in the number of first-generation university students, a reduction in urban–rural disparities in graduation rates, weaker dependence of educational outcomes on parental education, and the annual publication of transparent equality-of-opportunity indicators.

The study concludes that Uzbekistan has already achieved significant progress in expanding its higher education system. However, increasing the number of universities and students alone does not constitute evidence of equal access.

The next stage of reforms should ensure that the opportunities created are equally accessible to young people regardless of where they live, their family's income or their parents' educational background.